Global Fuel Price Surge
Strait of Hormuz Closure and Refining Crunch Keep Global Fuel Prices Elevated
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Uniper noted that gas prices are likely to stay around 50–60 EUR per megawatt-hour as long as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, with storage caverns in Germany at 48% capacity as of August 9 (well below the 64% a year earlier and the EU average of 59%), meaning targets to reach 70% by November will be difficult to achieve.
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Global refining capacity remains tight: Bahrain’s Bapco Energies declared force majeure after the Sitra refinery attack, and overall refinery runs are about 7.5 million barrels per day below July 2025 levels, with product exports from key suppliers down roughly 30% (about 4 million bpd) since the Iran conflict began.
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Germany’s fuel costs are being amplified by Rhine-area constraints: around 15–20% of total refined gasoline is transported directly on the Rhine, and low water levels are increasing transport costs, contributing to record-high E10 petrol prices in the country.
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Diesel prices in Puerto Rico have surged, with some stations charging about $1.45–$1.46 per liter, as diesel spiked after constrained distillate supplies and high refining margins; regular and premium gasoline prices have also risen in tandem with the global trend.
Global fuel prices remain elevated as the Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz closure disrupt oil supplies worldwide. Uniper, Germany's largest energy company, warns that gas prices could stay around 50–60 EUR per megawatt-hour as long as the strait remains closed, threatening Europe's winter energy security.
The crunch reflects a perfect storm: damaged refineries, limited spare capacity, and geopolitical tension. Even if the Hormuz reopens soon, analysts expect petrol, diesel, and jet fuel prices to stay high through 2027 due to the global refining capacity shortage.
Germany's Gas Storage Falls Short of Winter Targets
German gas storage caverns sit at just 48% capacity as of August 9, well below the 64% level from a year earlier and the EU average of 59%. Uniper says reaching the EU's 70% target by November will be difficult given the tight supply situation and high prices.
The storage shortfall comes as winter approaches and heating demand rises. Higher gas prices squeeze household budgets and strain industrial production across Europe.
Refinery Damage Keeps Global Oil Margins Wide
Global refinery runs are about 7.5 million barrels per day below July 2025 levels after the Iran conflict began. CBS News reports that Bahrain's Sitra refinery declared force majeure following an attack, removing a major producer from the market and tightening supply even further.
Product exports from key suppliers have dropped roughly 30%, about 4 million barrels per day. This constrained supply keeps the gap between crude prices and finished fuels unusually wide, making petrol, diesel, and jet fuel expensive for drivers and businesses.
Germany Hits Record E10 Petrol Prices Amid Transport Squeeze
Germany's E10 petrol averaged a record 2.215 euros per liter, driven by Iran tensions and Rhine River transport constraints. Low water levels on the Rhine increase shipping costs, as 15–20% of the country's refined gasoline moves by barge.
Drivers across the country face steeper fuel bills just as winter energy costs climb. The transport bottleneck amplifies global price pressures felt acutely in Germany.
Diesel Surges in Puerto Rico as Refining Margins Spike
Puerto Rico's diesel prices have jumped to $1.45–$1.46 per liter due to constrained distillate supplies and high refining margins worldwide. Regular and premium gasoline prices have also climbed in lockstep with the global trend, straining island residents' budgets.
Vice President JD Vance conceded that gas prices could stay high indefinitely as long as the Iran war drags on. The lack of spare refining capacity means relief may not come quickly, even if geopolitical tensions ease.
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