Global Trade Growth
Global Merchandise Trade Strengthens in Mid-2026 Driven by Artificial Intelligence Demand
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Key Points
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The WTO publishes its Goods Trade Barometer four times a year, and readings above 100 indicate growth above the indicator’s baseline trend, while readings below 100 signal below-trend trade.
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The WTO’s 1.9% baseline forecast for 2026 represents a sharp slowdown from the 4.6% growth recorded for world merchandise trade in 2025.
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The WTO’s March outlook estimated that continued investment in artificial intelligence could add 0.5 percentage points to merchandise-trade growth beyond the baseline forecast.
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The organization said first-quarter 2026 global merchandise-trade volumes had already posted year-on-year gains, while the full impact of Strait of Hormuz disruptions was expected to appear more clearly in second-quarter data; a revised global trade outlook was scheduled for October.
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The Strait of Hormuz is a particularly significant vulnerability because roughly one-fifth of global oil supplies normally transit the waterway, according to the WTO report’s coverage.
Global merchandise trade picked up speed in September 2026, with the WTO's Goods Trade Barometer hitting 102.0, up from 101.7 in June. Global Trade Magazine reports that demand for AI-related electronics and digital infrastructure drove growth above the indicator's long-term trend. But the WTO warned that U.S. tariffs, geopolitical tensions, and disruptions near the Strait of Hormuz could reverse this momentum and weaken the outlook for the rest of the year.
The organization projects world merchandise trade will grow just 1.9% in 2026 under its baseline scenario—a steep drop from the 4.6% growth recorded in 2025. Daily Sabah notes that growth could slow further to 1.4% if energy prices stay elevated. However, continued investment in artificial intelligence could add an extra 0.5 percentage points to growth, offering some hope amid the uncertainties.
Electronics Boom Lifts Trade Above Trend
Electronic components hit an index reading of 104.9 in September, signaling robust demand tied to AI and digital transformation. Bastille Post reports that export orders climbed to 103.5, another sign of strength in this sector. Air freight, agricultural raw materials, and automotive trade also stayed above trend levels. Container shipping alone dipped slightly, falling to 99.6, indicating some weakness in broader logistics.
Tariffs and Geopolitics Pose Growing Risks
The WTO cautioned that sweeping U.S. tariffs under President Donald Trump threaten to derail the current momentum. Fana News highlights that ongoing trade tensions between the U.S. and the Middle East, combined with high energy prices, create significant downside risks. Geopolitical instability adds another layer of uncertainty that could ripple through global supply chains in the coming quarters.
The Strait of Hormuz vulnerability looms particularly large. Qatar News Agency notes that roughly one-fifth of global oil supplies normally transit this waterway. Any disruption there would push energy and transportation costs higher, directly undermining the trade growth currently underway and potentially triggering the sharper slowdown the WTO has modeled.
Second Half 2026 Will Tell the Story
The WTO's Goods Trade Barometer measures growth relative to a baseline trend, with readings above 100 indicating expansion above that baseline. First-quarter 2026 global merchandise trade already posted year-on-year gains, laying a solid foundation. But the full impact of Strait of Hormuz disruptions was expected to show up more clearly in second-quarter data, which will shape the outlook for the second half of the year.
A revised global trade outlook was scheduled for October. Daily Sabah emphasized that the WTO publishes this barometer only four times yearly, making each reading a closely watched gauge of the world economy's health. The gap between the baseline 1.9% forecast and the pessimistic 1.4% scenario underscores how fragile the current recovery remains.
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