Analyst Stock Updates
Erste Group and Zacks Adjust Forecasts, Offer Mixed Ratings for Major Stocks
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Key Points
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Münchener Rück (MURGY) recently topped expectations in its last reported quarter, posting $1.57 EPS versus a consensus $0.32—an upside surprise of $1.25—despite Erste still cutting its FY2026 EPS estimate to $1.15. The company also reported a 21.44% return on equity and 11.28% net margin.
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For Toyota (TM), analysts other than Erste and Zacks diverged notably: BNP Paribas Exane initiated coverage with an “outperform” rating and a $290 price objective, Morgan Stanley set an “equal weight” rating, and Freedom Capital upgraded Toyota from “hold” to “strong-buy.”
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Charles Schwab (SCHW): besides Erste’s EPS lift, the company’s latest reported quarter showed $1.43 EPS (vs. $1.39 consensus) on $6.48B revenue (vs. $6.39B), with revenue up 15.8% year over year. Schwab also set FY 2026 guidance at 5.700–5.800 EPS.
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HSBC (HSBC): Erste’s higher FY2026 estimate came alongside specific dividend timing—HSBC disclosed a quarterly dividend of $0.50 per share, payable Friday, June 26, to shareholders of record Friday, May 15 (ex-dividend Friday, May 15). The report also cited a 2.3% dividend yield and 32.46% payout ratio.
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CME Group (CME): the update included dividend specifics plus performance—CME announced a $1.30 quarterly dividend payable Thursday, June 25, with a record date of Tuesday, June 9 (ex-dividend Tuesday, June 9). The report also cited a $5.20 annualized dividend (2.0% yield) and 44.37% payout ratio, alongside the last quarter’s $3.36 EPS (vs. $3.11 consensus) and $1.88B revenue (vs. $1.77B).
Erste Group Bank cut its FY2028 earnings forecast for Toyota (TM) to $22.44 per share, maintaining a Hold rating on the Japanese automaker, according to MarketBeat. The move came as Zacks also downgraded Toyota from strong-buy to Hold, signaling a shared caution about the company's long-term profit path.
The dual downgrades put Erste and Zacks at odds with more bullish voices on Wall Street. BNP Paribas Exane set a $290 price target on Toyota in February, while Freedom Capital upgraded the stock to strong-buy — compared to Toyota's current trading price of around $189, per Investing.com Canada.
Tariffs and EV Costs Drive Toyota Forecast Lower
Erste's cut to Toyota's FY2028 EPS — from a prior estimate down to $22.44 — reflects concern about tariff hits and the high cost of shifting to hybrid and EV platforms, according to MarketBeat. Toyota already missed earnings expectations in its Q4 fiscal 2026 quarter, per TradingView.
Despite the cautious stance from Erste and Zacks, four analysts still hold a strong-buy consensus on Toyota with an average price target of $256.52 — a potential 45% upside from current levels. The gap shows how sharply analysts disagree on Toyota's recovery timeline.
Munich Re Beats Forecasts but Still Gets a Downgrade
Munich Re (MURGY) posted a blowout quarter — $1.57 EPS versus a consensus estimate of just $0.32, a beat of $1.25 — yet Erste still cut its FY2026 EPS estimate to $1.15, per Zacks. Zacks also moved the stock to Hold on June 10.
Erste analyst Stephan Lingnau had already downgraded Munich Re from Buy to Hold back in February, citing softening reinsurance pricing. Lingnau warned of a "longer slump in 2026" for the company, according to Seeking Alpha. Munich Re reported a 21.44% return on equity and an 11.28% net margin, showing operational strength even as analysts hit the brakes.
Erste Raises Forecasts for Schwab, HSBC, and CME Group
Not all of Erste's updates were cuts. The bank raised its FY2026 EPS estimate for Charles Schwab (SCHW) to $6.16. Schwab backed that optimism with a strong Q1 — $1.43 EPS versus a $1.39 consensus — on $6.48 billion in revenue, up 15.8% year over year, per Schwab Investor Relations. CEO Rick Wurster said clients are "turning to us for more of their financial lives."
Erste also lifted its FY2026 EPS estimate for HSBC to $8.50 and raised CME Group's estimate to $12.24, per MarketBeat. Both stocks carry Hold ratings despite the higher forecasts. CME beat its last quarter with $3.36 EPS versus a $3.11 estimate on $1.88 billion in revenue. HSBC will pay a $0.50 quarterly dividend on June 26, and CME will pay $1.30 per share on June 25.
Hold Ratings Dominate as Rate Optimism Fades
The wave of Hold ratings across Toyota, Munich Re, HSBC, and CME points to a broader shift in sentiment. Analysts suggest the easy gains from high interest rates and post-pandemic recovery are largely priced in. Even with higher EPS estimates for HSBC and CME, Erste sees limited room for the stocks to run further from current levels.
Jefferies offers a counterpoint on Munich Re, noting management's commitment to a "total payout ratio of >80% through 2030," per the research firm. For Toyota, the bull case rests on hybrid vehicle demand continuing to outpace pure EVs — an argument BNP Paribas Exane uses to justify its $290 target, per Investing.com Canada. For now, Erste and Zacks are not buying it.
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