L.A. Mayoral Poll Shift
Councilmember Nithya Raman leads Mayor Karen Bass in new poll ahead of runoff.
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Key Points
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The Berkeley poll surveyed 2,150 likely Los Angeles voters online from Sept. 15 to 20 and has an estimated margin of error of about three percentage points.
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Raman’s advantage is especially pronounced among younger voters: she leads Bass 66% to 4% among voters ages 18 to 29 and 64% to 12% among those ages 30 to 39; she also leads among voters ages 40 to 49, 50% to 18%.
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Poll director Mark DiCamillo said the number of undecided voters was “extraordinarily unusual” for this stage of the campaign and that Raman’s lead leaves Bass with the more difficult task.
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Bass’s standing has been affected by voter dissatisfaction with her response to the January 2025 Palisades fire: 56% of likely voters said she did a poor or very poor job responding to the disaster, which killed 12 people and destroyed more than 4,000 homes.
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The eliminated Spencer Pratt received 26% of the vote in the June 2 primary, and poll director Mark DiCamillo linked the unusually large undecided bloc to uncertainty among his former supporters; mail-in ballots are scheduled to begin going out Oct. 1.
Los Angeles City Councilmember Nithya Raman leads incumbent Mayor Karen Bass 39% to 28% among likely voters in a new UC Berkeley poll, with the November 3 runoff still wide open NBC Los Angeles. A striking 33% of voters remain undecided, including nearly two-thirds of those who backed eliminated candidate Spencer Pratt in June, leaving the race far from settled Patch.
Bass faces a steep climb: 63% of voters view her unfavorably compared to just 28% favorably, while her handling of the January 2025 Palisades fire has damaged her standing My News LA. That disaster killed 12 people and destroyed over 4,000 homes, with 56% of voters saying she did a poor or very poor job responding My News LA.
Raman Dominates Among Younger Voters
Raman's advantage is striking among younger Angelenos. She leads Bass 66% to 4% among voters ages 18 to 29 and 64% to 12% among those 30 to 39 The Brunswick News. She also leads among voters 40 to 49, winning 50% to Bass's 18%.
A Dramatic Shift From The June Primary
Just months ago, Bass held a 34% to 29% edge over Raman in the June primary NBC Los Angeles. The latest poll marks a significant reversal, though Bass's campaign dismissed it as an outlier and cited other surveys showing a much tighter race My News LA.
Pratt Voters Hold Key To Race Outcome
Spencer Pratt pulled 26% of the vote in June, making him the leading first-round candidate. Polling director Mark DiCamillo called the massive undecided bloc "extraordinarily unusual" for this stage My News LA. He linked the uncertainty directly to Pratt supporters, who now face a choice between Raman and Bass.
The poll surveyed 2,150 likely Los Angeles voters online from September 15 to 20 with a margin of error of about three percentage points Patch. Mail-in ballots begin October 1.
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