Big Ten Underdogs Face Tough Conference Openers
Big Ten Underdogs Face Tough Conference Openers
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Key Points
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Iowa running back LJ Phillips has missed the past two games with a high ankle sprain, while Kamari Moulton and DJ Vonnahme sat out the Northern Iowa game. Ferentz said Moulton remains the team’s No. 1 running back and “if he can go, he’ll go.”
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Illinois’ 27.5-point spread is the largest the program has faced as an underdog during Bret Bielema’s tenure. The Illini have been 20-point underdogs only twice since 2021, including a 24-point underdog upset of Penn State in 2021.
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Illinois’ last victory over Ohio State came in a 28-21 upset of the No. 1 Buckeyes in 2007; the Illini ran for 260 yards and intercepted Ohio State quarterback Todd Boeckman three times. Illinois has since lost 10 consecutive games in the series.
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Nebraska quarterback Anthony Colandrea and running backs Jamal Rule, Mekhi Nelson and Isaiah Mozee present a specific challenge for Michigan State’s defense, while Nebraska’s most recent meeting with the Spartans ended in a 38-27 Cornhuskers victory in 2025. Nebraska leads the all-time series 10-3, although Michigan State’s 2023 win was vacated.
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Ohio State’s statistical edge over Illinois includes a 523.3-yard-per-game offense, ranked ninth nationally, compared with Illinois’ 405.7 yards per game, ranked 70th. Ohio State quarterback Julian Sayin completed 18 of 22 passes for 241 yards and two touchdowns in the win over Kent State.
Several Big Ten teams face steep odds in their conference openers this weekend. Illinois arrives in Columbus as a 27.5-point underdog against No. 7 Ohio State—the largest spread the Illini have faced under coach Bret Bielema. Meanwhile, Michigan State welcomes undefeated Nebraska as a 4.5-point home underdog, while Iowa prepares for a top-20 matchup at Michigan with key offensive players potentially returning from injury.
The underdogs face a steep climb. Ohio State ranks ninth nationally in yards per game at 523.3, compared to Illinois' 405.7. Nebraska is averaging 46.3 points while allowing just 11.7 per game. Star-Telegram noted that Illinois will emphasize winning on the road under Bielema's direction.
Iowa Faces Michigan With Injury Questions Looming
Iowa coach Kirk Ferentz said tight end DJ Vonnahme and running backs Kamari Moulton and LJ Phillips are trending toward returning for Saturday's matchup at Michigan. Phillips has missed two games with a high ankle sprain. Ferentz emphasized that Moulton remains the No. 1 running back and "if he can go, he'll go."
The availability of these three players will clarify later in the week. Phillips' return would bolster an Iowa offense that needs depth against a top-20 Wolverines team. Vonnahme and Moulton's status will likely be game-time decisions as the week progresses.
Illinois Faces Largest Underdog Spread of Bielema Era
Illinois arrives in Columbus as a 27.5-point underdog—the biggest deficit the program has faced under Bret Bielema. The Illini have only been 20-point underdogs twice since 2021. Yet history offers hope: Illinois pulled off a stunning 24-point underdog upset of Penn State in 2021. Ohio State has won 10 straight against Illinois dating back to 2007.
Illinois' last victory over the Buckeyes came in 2007 when the No. 1 Ohio State team fell 28-21. The Illini ran for 260 yards and intercepted quarterback Todd Boeckman three times that day. Both teams enter at 2-1 after dominant nonconference wins, but Ohio State's statistical advantage is stark.
Nebraska Tests Michigan State's Struggling Defense
Michigan State hosts undefeated Nebraska as a 4.5-point home underdog in its Big Ten opener. The Spartans fell 27-10 to Notre Dame last weekend. Nebraska averages 46.3 points per game while allowing only 11.7—a dominant stat line that will test Michigan State's inconsistent defense.
Nebraska's quarterback Anthony Colandrea and running backs Jamal Rule, Mekhi Nelson, and Isaiah Mozee present serious matchup problems for Michigan State. The Cornhuskers won their most recent meeting 38-27 in 2025 and lead the all-time series 10-3. Michigan State's offense has struggled to produce consistently this season.
Ohio State's Dominance Despite Texas Loss
Ohio State remains the betting favorite to win the 2026 national championship despite falling to Texas in Week 2. Quarterback Julian Sayin completed 18 of 22 passes for 241 yards and two touchdowns against Kent State. The Buckeyes' strong statistical profile has led oddsmakers to set the Illinois spread at 27.5 points.
The Buckeyes rank ninth nationally in total offense with 523.3 yards per game. Illinois' defense allows 405.7 yards—ranked 70th nationally. Despite one loss, Ohio State's overall performance metrics make them heavy favorites throughout the conference.
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