2026 Midterm Races Defined
Primary Elections Shape 2026 Midterm Map, Setting Stage for Key November Matchups Nationwide
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Primary elections held June 2, 2026, across six states have locked in the November matchups that will decide control of Congress and a wave of governorships. The biggest story: a political newcomer in Iowa upset the candidate backed by President Donald Trump, while California's wide-open governor's race — with 61 candidates on the ballot — still hangs in the balance as millions of mail-in votes are counted, according to Idaho News.
Former Fox News host Steve Hilton leads the California governor's primary with roughly 27.8% of the vote. Former HHS Secretary Xavier Becerra sits second at 25.4%. Billionaire Tom Steyer trails at 19.6%, but analysts warn he could still leapfrog Hilton as late Democratic ballots arrive, according to Fox San Antonio.
Iowa Voter Revolt Stuns Trump and GOP Establishment
Businessman and farmer Zach Lahn won the Iowa Republican governor's primary with about 38% of the vote. He beat Trump-endorsed Rep. Randy Feenstra by less than one percentage point. Trump issued a last-minute endorsement just days before the vote. It did not work. Lahn declared after his win: "Tonight the people of Iowa had something to say... Iowa does not belong to the political class," according to News Channel 9.
The upset sent shockwaves through political forecasters. Sabato's Crystal Ball immediately moved the Iowa governor's race from "Leans Republican" to "Toss-up." On the Democratic side, State Auditor Rob Sand ran unopposed and is now the nominee. Analysts say Sand's moderate image gives Democrats a real shot at flipping the seat, according to WLOS.
California's Governor Race Heads Into Days of Ballot Counting
California uses a "jungle primary" system. All candidates share one ballot. The top two vote-getters — regardless of party — advance to November. With 61 candidates in the race, no one cleared a majority. Hilton and Becerra lead, but Steyer's 19.6% keeps the final matchup uncertain for days, according to Local 12.
Steyer spent a record $250 million of his own money on the race. Political strategist Garry South warned that if Steyer overtakes Hilton, California could see an all-Democrat general election in November. That outcome, South said, would be "lethal for Republican down-ballot candidates" statewide. Becerra framed his campaign as a fight against Trump, saying, "I've never been afraid to stand up to bullies," according to Fox San Antonio.
Iowa's Congressional Rematch Sets Up Third Close Fight
Democrat Christina Bohannan and Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks are set to face off again in Iowa's 1st Congressional District. It will be their third match. Miller-Meeks won in 2020 by just six votes. She won again in 2024 by 800 votes. Both races ranked among the closest House contests in modern history, according to WLOS.
The Iowa Senate race also drew attention. Former Paralympian and state representative Josh Turek won the Democratic nomination for the open U.S. Senate seat left by retiring Sen. Joni Ernst. Both the House and Senate races in Iowa are now seen as key pieces in the battle for congressional control in 2027, according to News Channel 9.
Gas Prices and Iran War Shadow Every Race on the Map
The biggest issue driving voters in Tuesday's primaries was not a candidate — it was the economy. Gas prices have surged past $4 per gallon. Brent crude oil now trades at $105 a barrel, a 44% jump since the U.S. military launched Operation Epic Fury against Iran. Voters in Iowa and California ranked affordability as their top concern, according to Idaho News.
Both Lahn and Hilton built their campaigns around cutting costs and breaking up what they called "corporate cartels." The economic pressure has sharpened anti-establishment anger in both parties. Analysts say the 2026 midterms will not follow normal patterns. Instead, voters appear ready to punish anyone — Democrat or Republican — seen as part of the political or corporate status quo, according to Local 12.
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