Rating Upgraded, AI Risks Noted

S&P said its model anticipates leverage would peak in 2028 at an adjusted 1.2x (not just below 2.0x), then “improve year by year” as SpaceX expands Starlink/“connectivity” revenue and profitability and begins monetizing its AI operations.

S&P characterized SpaceX’s AI ramp as likely to create a near-term cash crunch, saying aggressive capital spending tied to the AI push is “expected to produce significantly negative free cash flow in the near term,” while also noting SpaceX had committed in its IPO filing to maintain leverage consistent with sustaining an investment-grade rating.

On the AI business, S&P’s rationale described a specific “reusable rocket technology” approach aimed at building “lower-cost data centers powered by solar energy,” with monetization via “long-term leases” and cited deals such as leases to Anthropic as part of the demand thesis.

S&P also highlighted SpaceX’s plan to use Starship to place next-generation satellites that host AI accelerators in low-Earth orbit, leveraging “continuous solar power” and “reduced cooling requirements,” with S&P analysis projecting operational costs could be “over 90 percent” lower than Earth-based alternatives.