US Regulated Prediction Markets
Binance.US seeks CFTC license to launch regulated prediction markets and crypto futures for US customers.
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Key Points
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Gemini Space Station Inc. obtained a CFTC license for the same thing earlier this year, signaling regulatory precedent that Binance.US could follow.
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A Minnesota federal court ruling by U.S. District Judge Katherine Menendez held that Minnesota’s total ban on prediction markets likely violates federal law by treating many trades on CFTC-registered platforms as swaps, reinforcing the CFTC’s exclusive authority.
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Kalshi and Polymarket have already processed more than $60 billion in trading volume this year, with Kalshi logging over $30 billion in June and Polymarket about $10.8 billion in June, underscoring strong liquidity and demand.
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If approved, Binance.US would offer a broad range of CFTC-regulated event contracts across elections, economic indicators, sports and other real-world outcomes as part of its prediction-market expansion.
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Industry-wide expectations put 2025 regulated US prediction-market trading volume at more than $25 billion, highlighting the scale of the opportunity for Binance.US and other entrants.
Binance.US plans to file for a Designated Contract Market license from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission next month, a move that would let it offer regulated prediction markets and crypto perpetual futures to US customers, according to Eastern Herald. CEO Steven Gregory revealed the plan at the Rare Breeds conference, with a formal application expected in August.
The bid follows a wave of interest in US prediction markets. Kalshi and Polymarket together processed more than $60 billion in trading volume this year alone, with Kalshi logging over $30 billion in June and Polymarket about $10.8 billion that same month, per GuruFocus.
What a DCM License Would Let Binance.US Do
A Designated Contract Market license is a federal approval from the CFTC. It lets an exchange offer futures and event contracts — bets on real-world outcomes — to US customers in a regulated setting. Binance.US wants to use it to launch prediction markets covering elections, economic data, sports, and other events, according to Eastern Herald.
The exchange also aims to cut fees and broaden its derivatives lineup. Crypto perpetual futures — popular abroad but largely unavailable to US retail traders — would be part of the offering. Industry-wide forecasts put 2025 regulated US prediction-market volume above $25 billion, per Hoka News.
Gemini's Earlier License Sets a Regulatory Roadmap
Binance.US is not starting from scratch. Gemini Space Station Inc. already got a CFTC DCM license earlier this year, creating a regulatory blueprint for competitors to follow. That approval showed the CFTC is willing to grant these licenses to crypto-native firms, according to Hoka News.
Kalshi and Polymarket also hold or operate under CFTC oversight. Their combined multi-billion-dollar monthly volumes show that demand is real and growing. A regulated Binance.US platform could compete directly with both, backed by the brand recognition of the world's largest crypto exchange.
Minnesota Court Backs CFTC Power Over State Bans
A federal court ruling recently strengthened the case for regulated prediction markets. US District Judge Katherine Menendez in Minnesota held that the state's total ban on prediction markets likely violates federal law. Her ruling found that Minnesota was treating trades on CFTC-registered platforms as illegal swaps, according to Eastern Herald.
The decision reinforced the CFTC's exclusive federal authority over event contracts. That matters for Binance.US and others. State-level legal pushback remains a risk, but this ruling signals that federal oversight — not state bans — should govern these markets going forward.
Binance.US Eyes Recurring Revenue in Fast-Growing Sector
Right now, prediction market volumes spike around big events like elections and then fade. Binance.US wants to change that pattern. By offering a wide range of contracts — from economic indicators to sports outcomes — the exchange hopes to turn one-off surges into steady, recurring trading activity, per GuruFocus.
The strategy could open a meaningful new revenue stream. But it depends on two things: getting the CFTC license approved and navigating a still-unsettled legal landscape at the state level. The August application will be the first real test of whether regulators are ready to let a major exchange reshape US prediction markets.
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