Midterm Election Momentum
Democrats Gain Midterm Momentum as Republicans Defend Their Congressional Majorities
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Key Points
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Trump’s approval among Republicans fell to 73% from 82% in a week, while only 30% of Republican voters said they “strongly” approved of his performance.
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The polling spread is especially stark in South Carolina: a GOP-affiliated InsiderAdvantage survey showed Democrat Annie Andrews only 2 points behind Republican Sen. Darline Graham, while the sole post-July nonpartisan poll from Abacus Data gave Graham a 13-point lead. Trump carried the state by 18 points in 2024.
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A Cygnal poll sponsored by the conservative Iowans for Tax Relief Foundation found Democrat Josh Turek and Republican Ashley Hinson tied at 43%, although the sponsor’s press release did not highlight the result and it appeared only in the full poll document.
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Victor Davis Hanson argued that international calls to regulate artificial intelligence would primarily constrain U.S. companies, noting his claim that eight of the world’s 10 largest AI corporations are American. He compared the proposal to scientists developing a weapon more powerful than nuclear arms and then seeking an international agreement to stop it.
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Evercore ISI public-policy strategist Sarah Bianchi said Democrats had gained additional momentum during the week and discussed whether controversies surrounding data centers and artificial intelligence could affect voters in the midterms.
Democrats are heading into the 2026 midterm elections with growing optimism, citing strong post-Labor Day polling, high gas prices, and President Trump's sagging approval ratings. Reuters/Ipsos found Trump's overall approval at just 32%, while his support among Republicans fell from 82% to 73% in a single week — a troubling sign for GOP candidates trying to distance themselves from the president.
National forecasts give Democrats an 84% chance of flipping the House and a 55% chance of taking the Senate, according to National Memo. Republicans still hold structural advantages from redistricting and fundraising, but battleground polls in Texas, Michigan, Georgia, and South Carolina show Democratic candidates leading or in dead heats — a dramatic shift from Trump's 2024 wins in those states.
Trump's Approval Collapses Among Republicans
Trump's grip on his own party is slipping fast. Reuters/Ipsos polling showed his Republican approval dropped seven points in one week, landing at 73%. Even more striking: only 30% of GOP voters said they "strongly" approve of his job performance. A 32% overall approval rating puts Trump in historically weak territory heading into midterms.
South Carolina Senate Shows Alarming Poll Splits
South Carolina's Senate race between Republican Darline Graham and Democrat Annie Andrews reveals deep polling confusion. InsiderAdvantage, a GOP-affiliated firm, showed Graham leading by just 2 points — shockingly tight in a state Trump won by 18 points in 2024. But Abacus Data, a nonpartisan pollster, gave Graham a comfortable 13-point lead, highlighting major disagreements about turnout and voter behavior.
The volatility reflects chaos around Graham's appointment. Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham died in July, and Governor Henry McMaster named his sister Darline to fill the seat. When she won the GOP primary in August, losing candidate Ralph Norman encouraged write-in votes — a sign of base fracture that could haunt Republicans in November.
Iowa and Texas Show Unexpected Democratic Strength
Iowa's Senate race is deadlocked. A Cygnal poll sponsored by the conservative Iowans for Tax Relief Foundation found Democrat Josh Turek and Republican Ashley Hinson tied at 43% each — but the sponsoring group buried the result in the full document rather than highlight it. Meanwhile, multiple InsiderAdvantage and SoCal Strategies polls show Democrat James Talarico running within 2 to 5 points of Republican Ken Paxton in Texas, a state Republicans thought was safe.
Gas Prices and War Feed Democratic Messaging
Democrats are hammering Republicans on two issues: high gas prices and voter anger over the Iran war. Cook Political Report has declared the U.S. Senate a "true toss up," meaning either party can win. Evercore ISI strategist Sarah Bianchi noted that data centers and artificial intelligence facilities are driving up electricity costs in key districts — a fresh voter concern that could tip close races.
Fox News has already shifted its own ratings on seven Florida House races toward Democrats, moving Florida's 25th Congressional District from "Toss-up" to "Lean D." National Memo cautioned that polling errors and district maps could still prevent a full Democratic wave, but the momentum is unmistakably in their direction as November approaches.
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