Hawthorn, Brisbane Set for AFL Preliminary Final
Hawthorn, Brisbane Set for AFL Preliminary Final
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Key Points
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Brisbane’s Lachie Neale has recorded at least 31 disposals in eight of his last nine appearances at the MCG, while Brisbane veteran Dayne Zorko has reached 25 or more disposals in each of his last 10 finals.
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Brisbane’s scoring threats extend beyond its established stars: Logan Morris has kicked at least two goals in each of his last five matches, Charlie Cameron has done so in each of his last 10 night matches, and Zac Bailey has reached two goals in four of his last five finals.
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Hawthorn coach Sam Mitchell said the Round 22 loss prompted the club to examine both collective and individual shortcomings, describing it as a “wake-up call” that exposed what the team had been willing to accept. Hawthorn has not lost since that match.
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A historical trend offers Hawthorn encouragement: all 13 teams this century that lost a qualifying final by at least 50 points went on to win their following semifinal, although none of those teams subsequently won the preliminary final.
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The Hawks Insiders analysis identifies Brisbane’s midfield depth as a major tactical challenge, highlighting Will Ashcroft, Zac Bailey and Cam Rayner as clearance winners capable of pushing forward and creating damage.
Hawthorn hosts Brisbane at the MCG in an AFL preliminary final, with the Hawks chasing their first Grand Final appearance since 2015. The Lions are pursuing a third consecutive premiership and enter as clear favorites after demolishing Hawthorn by 67 points in Round 22. Nine News reports both teams are otherwise unchanged, setting up a rematch where Brisbane's midfield depth and scoring power will clash against Hawthorn's improved defense and resilience since that Round 22 loss.
Brisbane's Midfield Dominance and Scoring Threats
Brisbane's strength lies in its balanced offensive attack. Lachie Neale has recorded at least 31 disposals in eight of his last nine MCG appearances, while veteran Dayne Zorko has reached 25 or more disposals in each of his last 10 finals. Beyond the stars, Logan Morris has kicked at least two goals in each of his last five matches, Charlie Cameron has done so in each of his last 10 night matches, and Zac Bailey has reached two goals in four of his last five finals.
The Hawks Insiders analysis identifies Brisbane's midfield depth as a major tactical challenge. Will Ashcroft, Zac Bailey and Cam Rayner emerge as clearance winners capable of pushing forward and creating damage. This attacking versatility means Hawthorn cannot rely on shutting down just one or two Brisbane players to control the game.
Hawthorn's Response Since Round 22 Humbling
Hawthorn coach Sam Mitchell called the 67-point Round 22 loss a necessary wake-up call that exposed what the team had been willing to accept. The club examined both collective and individual shortcomings. Since that defeat, Hawthorn has not lost a match, signaling meaningful improvement and preparation to respond to Brisbane's intensity.
A historical trend offers the Hawks encouragement: all 13 teams this century that lost a qualifying final by at least 50 points went on to win their following semifinal. However, none of those teams subsequently won the preliminary final. The stat illustrates Hawthorn's capacity to bounce back, though advancing to the Grand Final remains a steep climb.
Brisbane's Strong MCG and Finals Records
Brisbane enters with a dominant recent record against Hawthorn and proven MCG success. The Lions' scoring power, combined with strong finals pedigree, has made them the consensus pick among analysts. Their pursuit of a third consecutive premiership adds motivation and experience that few teams possess.
Nick Watson's Opportunity Against Weakened Defense
Brisbane defender Noah Answerth's absence could give Hawthorn forward Nick Watson more freedom in this preliminary final. The Hawks will need to exploit such opportunities aggressively. Hawthorn's ability to produce a stronger performance against this top opponent—particularly in defense—will determine whether they end their eight-year Grand Final drought.
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