Qatar LNG Ramps Up.
QatarEnergy rapidly restarts Ras Laffan LNG post-Hormuz reopening, despite damaged trains and shipping constraints.
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Key Points
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QatarEnergy had been preparing for a fast restart since April, including testing equipment, performing maintenance, and keeping some Ras Laffan trains running at reduced levels before the Strait of Hormuz reopened.
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Bloomberg-reported restart milestones are more specific than a “within a month” ramp: Qatar’s LNG restart is expected to reach about 50% capacity in one month and roughly 80% in two months.
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The conflict timeline included an earlier shutdown decision: Qatar shut down the world’s largest LNG facility early in the U.S.-Iran war after Iranian Shahed one-way attack drones hit critical energy infrastructure and the Hormuz chokepoint was shuttered.
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Ras Laffan’s broader market impact is emphasized: sources say it exported nearly 20% of global LNG supply last year, and analyst Jack Prandelli (on X) said European gas prices jumped about 40–50% within weeks when Ras Laffan went offline.
QatarEnergy says it can get Ras Laffan — the world's largest LNG facility — back to about 50% output within one month of the Strait of Hormuz reopening, and roughly 80% within two months, according to Bloomberg. The U.S.-Iran peace deal is expected to formally reopen the strait on June 19, 2026, setting the clock in motion for a restart that markets have been waiting on for months.
But the recovery comes with a permanent wound. Iranian Shahed drone strikes in March 2026 destroyed two of Qatar's 14 LNG trains and damaged one gas-to-liquids plant, wiping out roughly 17% of Qatar's export capacity. Those components will take three to five years to repair, according to Reuters.
How Qatar Quietly Prepared for a Fast Restart
QatarEnergy did not simply wait for the strait to reopen. Since April 2026, the company tested equipment, performed maintenance, and kept some undamaged trains running at reduced levels, according to Bloomberg. That quiet groundwork is the reason a 30-day ramp to 50% capacity is now considered realistic rather than wishful.
CEO Saad al-Kaabi has been the driving force behind the restart push. He confirmed in March that the damaged trains would "take years" to fix, but shifted focus to stabilizing output from the 12 unharmed trains. Qatar's Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani is also in Europe this week, meeting with leaders to shore up long-term supply contracts, Japan Times reported.
Iranian Drones Knocked Out 20% of World LNG Supply
Ras Laffan supplied nearly 20% of total global LNG last year, according to OilPrice.com. When it went offline in March, European gas prices jumped 40–50% within weeks, according to commodity analyst Jack Prandelli. That single facility matters more to the world's gas market than almost anything else on the planet.
The March strikes used Shahed-136 "kamikaze" drones that bypassed regional air defenses to hit specific bottleneck equipment. QatarEnergy CEO al-Kaabi put the revenue loss at $20 billion per year until repairs are complete, gCaptain reported. That figure will hang over Qatar's finances for years.
Shipping Bottleneck Could Slow the Recovery
Producing LNG and actually getting it to buyers are two different problems. Only slightly more than a dozen LNG carriers have exited the Strait of Hormuz since the conflict began, as shipping firms waited for safety guarantees, according to gCaptain. Major carriers like Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd have said they will not sail through without confirmed mine clearance.
More than 1,550 commercial vessels and 22,500 mariners remain stranded near the strait. Mine clearance alone can take weeks or months. Even if Qatar hits its 50% production target on schedule, loading and vessel availability could delay actual deliveries to buyers in Europe and Asia.
Markets Are Cautious — 80% Is Not 100%
European benchmark gas prices fell about 6% on news of the restart plan. But analysts urged caution. Prandelli warned on X that "12.8 million tonnes per year [are] gone for 3 to 5 years minimum," meaning the global market faces a structural deficit no phased restart can fully fix, as reported by ZeroHedge.
The broader picture is a market that was already tight before the war. Qatar's partial return will ease pressure, but experts say it may take weeks to months before exports fully normalize. The "Hormuz Risk Premium" is now expected to stay baked into energy prices for the foreseeable future, according to OilPrice.com.
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