US-Iran Deal Progresses
US and Iran Near Interim Deal to End War, Reopen Strait of Hormuz Despite Skirmishes
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The United States and Iran are on the verge of signing a landmark interim deal to end a war that erupted in February 2026, even as Iranian drones continued targeting commercial ships near the Strait of Hormuz on June 13. A senior Trump administration official put the odds of a deal at "80% to 85%," according to Bloomberg. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi declared the "Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding has never been closer" to being signed.
Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif announced on June 13 that a "final, agreed-upon text" has been reached, according to National Post. The deal could be signed digitally within days — potentially timed to coincide with the G7 summit opening June 15.
A Four-Month War That Choked Global Oil Supply
The conflict began February 28, 2026, when the U.S. and Israel launched coordinated strikes against Iran. Tehran responded by blockading the Strait of Hormuz — the chokepoint through which roughly 20% of global oil supply flows, or about 140 ships per day before the war. The blockade wiped out an estimated 1.5 billion barrels of oil production, according to lfpress.com.
A fragile ceasefire took hold April 8, halting major bombing runs but leaving the naval blockade in place. Oil prices surged to a peak of $125 per barrel in April. On June 11, three Indian seafarers were killed in a drone attack off Oman. President Trump canceled planned retaliatory airstrikes that same evening, citing significant "negotiating progress," according to thewhig.com.
What the Islamabad Deal Actually Requires Each Side to Do
The draft 14-article memorandum is a sequenced "rewards for de-escalation" framework — not a full treaty. Iran must reopen the Strait of Hormuz to all commercial traffic within 30 days. Iran would manage the waterway jointly with Oman but would not hold exclusive control, according to saultstar.com. The U.S. must end its blockade of Iranian ports and pull significant military assets back from Iran's immediate waters.
In return, the U.S. would unfreeze billions in Iranian assets and lift sanctions on oil exports. Nuclear talks are pushed to a "Phase 2" starting 60 days after the maritime terms are fully met. Araghchi has been blunt: no nuclear discussions happen until the economic and maritime steps are "fully implemented," according to stratfordbeaconherald.com.
Markets Cheer While Hard-Liners in Tehran and Jerusalem Push Back
Oil markets moved fast on the news. Brent crude fell 3.4% to $87.33 per barrel on Friday — its lowest since March 5 and far below the April war peak of $125. Wall Street posted gains. VP JD Vance was careful to stress that Iran gets "nothing for free," saying the asset releases are strictly performance-based, according to cochranetimespost.ca.
Opponents on both sides remain a threat to the deal. Iranian hard-liners have called the agreement a "retreat." Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu argues the deal fails to address Iran's missile program and simply gives Tehran an economic lifeline. A recent poll found only 29% of Jewish Israelis believe a deal serves Israel's security interests, according to owensoundsuntimes.com.
Why the Next 60 Days Could Make or Break the Agreement
Even if signed, the deal carries a built-in danger zone. If either side fails to meet the maritime terms during the implementation window, the Islamabad Memorandum allows both parties to return to "pre-ceasefire postures" — meaning full blockades and military escalation resume, according to fairviewpost.com. The U.S. has said it will demand "tangible verification" before the biggest sanctions are lifted.
The signing will be represented on the U.S. side by VP Vance and Special Envoy Steve Witkoff — not President Trump himself. Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman said a physical ceremony is ruled out for this Sunday, but a digital signing could happen any day. U.S. Treasury had sanctioned four Iranian crypto exchanges as recently as June 2 for processing $7.7 billion in sanctions-evading volume, according to goderichsignalstar.com — a sign of how much economic pressure Washington still holds in reserve.
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