Arch Manning's NFL Crossroads
Texas Coach Sarkisian Suggests Arch Manning Could Return for Fifth Year
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Key Points
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Arch Manning’s NFL-related storyline is tied to his family history: he is “the grandson of Archie Manning” and the nephew of Eli and Peyton Manning, while his father, Cooper Manning—who was a star wide receiver in high school—had “spinal stenosis” that ended his football career.
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Sarkisian attributed Manning’s NIL/endorsement pull not just to money in general, but to specific brand factors—saying Manning “does pretty good through NIL” and pointing to “some pretty good endorsements… which is a credit to him and… the lineage of the last name, and the brand of the University of Texas.”
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Manning has spoken about the emotional side of his 2025 start: in April 2025, he said, “I think I could have had more fun.” He added that “The first half of the season, I was pissed. I wasn't playing well, and it wasn't fun for me. And then… I started winning some games.”
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Beyond Cam Coleman, Texas’s championship build is framed as a talent upgrade around Manning—Coleman is described as “project[ed] to be the best weapon on the roster,” and Dane Brugler’s evaluation goes further, writing Manning “could've competed with Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Fernando Mendoza for the top pick” in the prior draft if he declared.
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In the NFL knock-on effect, one article notes the Jets are expected to have “three picks” in the first round next year, and argues Manning staying in college “could set them back a year” if they were planning to make a play for him in the upcoming draft cycle.
Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian said Monday he "would not be surprised" if quarterback Arch Manning returns for a fifth college season in 2027, despite Manning being projected as the potential No. 1 overall pick in next year's NFL Draft. Sarkisian made the comments on Up & Adams, stressing that no decision has been made and that everything depends on how the 2026 season unfolds.
Manning, entering his redshirt junior year, chose to stay at Texas after a rocky start as a full-time starter in 2025. He threw five interceptions in his first five games before catching fire — finishing his final eight games with 2,012 passing yards, 15 touchdowns, and just two interceptions, per CBS Sports.
Why Sarkisian Thinks Manning Could Stay Longer
Sarkisian pointed to three factors that could keep Manning in Austin: team success, personal performance, and staying healthy. "How we play as a team this fall" and "how he plays individually" will drive the call, he said. He also noted injury-free football as a key condition, a concern made real after Manning had foot surgery in January 2026.
NIL money is another reason to stay. Sarkisian said Manning "does pretty good through NIL" and has "some pretty good endorsements" — including Google Gemini, Red Bull, and Vuori. Manning's NIL valuation is estimated between $5.4M and $6.8M, the highest in college football, according to On3 Sports. Sarkisian credited "the lineage of the last name, and the brand of the University of Texas" for Manning's earning power.
Manning's 2025 Rollercoaster Built the Case for Return
Manning admitted his 2025 start was painful. "The first half of the season, I was pissed. I wasn't playing well, and it wasn't fun for me," he told On3 Sports. He had said in April 2025 that "I think I could have had more fun." Then things shifted. Texas went 7-1 in its final eight games, including a win over No. 3 Texas A&M and a Cheez-It Citrus Bowl victory over Michigan.
Manning finished 2025 with 3,163 passing yards, 26 touchdown passes, 10 rushing touchdowns, and 7 interceptions. Draft analyst Dane Brugler of The Athletic wrote that Manning "could've competed with Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Fernando Mendoza for the top pick" in the 2026 Draft had he been eligible. Now Texas is adding firepower around him — wide receiver Cam Coleman, described by The Houston Chronicle as "the best weapon on the roster," transferred from Auburn in January 2026.
Manning Family History Points Toward Patience
Manning's potential five-year stay would echo family tradition. His grandfather, Archie Manning, used every year of eligibility at Ole Miss before going No. 2 in the NFL Draft. His uncle Peyton famously skipped the NFL after his junior year to return to Tennessee. His uncle Eli also used a full five years at Ole Miss before going No. 1 overall, per 247Sports.
There is also a cautionary family story. His father, Cooper Manning, was a standout wide receiver recruit whose career ended before it started due to spinal stenosis, a condition that narrows the spinal canal and can make playing football dangerous. That history adds a quiet urgency to the family's emphasis on Manning staying healthy above all else.
NFL Teams Like the Jets Are Already Watching the Clock
If Manning stays in school, it creates real problems for NFL teams banking on his availability in 2027. The New York Jets are expected to hold three first-round picks next year and are widely rumored to be targeting a franchise quarterback. One analysis noted that Manning staying in college "could set them back a year" if their rebuild timeline depends on landing him, per Star-Telegram.
CBS Sports analyst Mike Renner currently projects Manning as the No. 1 overall pick in the 2027 Draft, mocked to the Arizona Cardinals, per 247Sports. The official deadline for underclassmen to declare for the draft is mid-January 2027. For now, Manning and Texas say the only focus is the season opener against Texas State.
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