Intel's AI Foundry Boost
Intel Shares Jump as BofA Upgrades to Buy, Citing AI and Foundry Strategy
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Key Points
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Bank of America projected Intel’s server CPU revenue could reach “over $40 billion by 2030,” representing about “25%” of the bank’s “$170 billion” total market view.
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Reuters previously reported that Alphabet’s Google has ordered “over 3 million TPUs” from Intel for 2028—an example BofA analysts pointed to as part of the foundry/customer-demand backdrop for Intel.
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A separate TheFly/TIPRANKS note said BofA’s rationale included Intel’s potential to address industry constraints in “leading edge wafers and packaging,” alongside supply into a much larger agentic CPU market, while still stressing that execution in products and the foundry “remains key.”
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Near-term market context: after chip stocks sold off, Reuters reported that “Nvidia, Intel and Micron rose in premarket trading” as some investors “bought the dip” in tech.
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Beyond analyst notes, GuruFocus highlighted investor/company signals: an overall “GF Score™: 67/100” and that “insiders sold $6.5 million worth of shares” over the past three months.
Intel shares surged as much as 10% on June 11, 2026, after Bank of America analyst Vivek Arya issued a rare "double upgrade" — jumping the stock from Underperform all the way to Buy. Yahoo Finance reported that Arya also raised his price target from $96 to $135, a move that caught Wall Street off guard and sent Intel to the top of the premarket movers list.
The upgrade marks a sharp reversal from BofA's previous bearish stance. Arya now projects Intel can earn more than $6 per share by 2030, up from an earlier estimate of $3 to $4. He pointed to a growing role for CPUs in AI systems and Intel's push into chip manufacturing for outside customers as the two biggest drivers of that growth.
BofA Sees $40 Billion Server CPU Prize by 2030
Arya's bull case rests on a massive shift in how AI systems work. He argues that so-called "agentic AI" — software that acts autonomously and makes decisions — relies far more on CPUs than older AI models did. BofA now expects the total server CPU market to reach $170 billion by 2030. Intel, Arya says, could capture about 25% of that — or roughly $40 billion in revenue, according to Yahoo Finance.
To justify the $135 price target, BofA applied a 25x multiple to its projected 2030 earnings of about $6.24 per share and discounted that figure back to today. TipRanks noted that Arya emphasized Intel's potential to ease industry bottlenecks in advanced chip packaging — a manufacturing step where capacity is extremely tight across the industry.
Google's 3 Million TPU Order Validates the Foundry Bet
The upgrade did not happen in a vacuum. Reuters previously reported that Alphabet's Google placed an order for over 3 million Tensor Processing Units — custom AI chips — from Intel's factory for delivery in 2028. That deal gave Arya concrete evidence that Intel's manufacturing business, known as Intel Foundry, can win real outside customers.
Winning external orders is critical. Intel's foundry strategy only works if companies beyond Intel itself pay to have chips made there. The Google deal is the biggest public proof yet that the plan is gaining traction. Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan recently said that yields on Intel's newest chip-making process are "running ahead of internal targets," adding technical credibility to the order.
Chip Stocks Bounced After a Sharp Sector Selloff
The upgrade came at a moment of broader weakness in chip stocks. Intel had fallen roughly 17% from its monthly highs just days before BofA issued its note. Reuters reported that Nvidia, Intel, and Micron all rose in premarket trading on June 11 as investors "bought the dip" in technology shares after the sector-wide retreat.
Intel's recovery puts it roughly 21% above its 50-day moving average. Technical analysts note the stock is neither overbought nor oversold, with its Relative Strength Index sitting near 51 — a level that signals room to move in either direction without an immediate pullback.
Insider Selling and a Low Fundamental Score Add Caution
Not every signal is bullish. GuruFocus tracks a composite health score for stocks, and it currently gives Intel just 67 out of 100. More striking, the site found that Intel insiders sold $6.5 million worth of shares over the past three months, with zero reported buys. That gap between executive behavior and analyst optimism is a flag some investors will not ignore.
GuruFocus also places Intel's fair value — based on current earnings — at just $28.20, far below the stock's trading price above $100. That gap reflects a core tension: BofA is betting on what Intel could earn in 2030, while value-focused models measure what the business earns today. Arya himself stressed that execution on both the product roadmap and foundry commitments "remains key" — a reminder that the upgrade is a forecast, not a guarantee.
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