Polymarket Fake Bets Alleged
WSJ Investigation Alleges Polymarket Paid Influencers to Stage Fake Winning Bets
Anonymous
Key Points
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Polymarket’s underlying (real) trading is described as running on the Polygon blockchain and settling in USDC; markets resolve through UMA’s permissionless oracle, where anyone can propose or dispute outcomes by posting a $750 bond—so positions are publicly auditable on-chain.
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The investigation alleges the promotional clips were not just edited for emphasis, but that creators “altered headlines, reused older footage,” and produced videos that made “losing or simulated bets look like wins,” with some videos allegedly showing creators appearing to win “thousands of dollars.”
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The campaign’s distribution channels are specified as TikTok, YouTube, and Instagram, where the clips created the impression that viewers could make large profits on Polymarket.
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Beyond the U.S. access issue, the reporting adds corporate-structure context: Polymarket reportedly “reincorporated in Panama,” with its headquarters described as a shared law office that also worked with FTX.
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The CFTC enforcement context is detailed as tied to an “unregistered” market: the order reportedly required Polymarket to wind down non-compliant markets and cease violating commodity rules after the agency found it offered “off-exchange event-based binary options.”
A Wall Street Journal investigation alleges that Polymarket, the crypto prediction market, paid roughly 800 creators to post fake winning bets on TikTok, YouTube, and Instagram. The WSJ reviewed 1,105 videos and found that 70% showed bets — but none of the bets were real. The Wall Street Journal says the clips generated more than 140 million views combined.
The alleged scheme involved copycat websites and dummy trades designed to look like real wins. Creators reportedly celebrated about $900,000 in fabricated profits. Had those same bets been placed on the real platform, they would have lost $166,000, according to TechCrunch.
Fake Sites, Edited Clips, and $2,500 Monthly Paychecks
Polymarket's chief marketing officer Matthew Modabber allegedly sent $2.5 million to creators through personal PayPal accounts, according to TechCrunch. Using personal accounts made the payments harder to trace and gave the campaign an organic look. Creators were reportedly told not to disclose that they were being paid.
Each creator earned roughly $2,000 to $3,000 per month. The WSJ says they used copycat sites — including one called poiymarket.com — to film fake bets. Some videos altered headlines or reused old footage to make losing trades look like wins. One video falsely claimed a $100,000 win tied to a Trump clip that didn't match any real January trade, according to Zamin.uz.
Polymarket's "Truth Machine" Brand Collides With Off-Ledger Marketing
Polymarket's core pitch is transparency. Real trades run on the Polygon blockchain and settle in a digital dollar called USDC. A system called UMA's oracle lets anyone audit outcomes publicly by posting a $750 bond. That on-chain openness is the whole selling point — every bet is visible and verifiable.
The alleged marketing campaign was the opposite. None of the promotional videos reflected real trades on the public ledger. CEO Shayne Coplan has called Polymarket a "global truth machine" that "separates signal from noise." The company told TechCrunch it is "committed to maintaining accurate, fair, and transparent markets" and plans an audit of its promotional content.
CFTC Enforcement History Clouds Polymarket's U.S. Ambitions
Polymarket is not new to regulatory trouble. In January 2022, it settled with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission for $1.4 million. The CFTC found it offered unregistered, off-exchange binary options. Polymarket agreed to block U.S. users and wind down non-compliant markets. To stay offshore, the company reincorporated in Panama under the name Adventure One QSS Inc., according to Zamin.uz.
Despite that history, Polymarket has pushed to re-enter the U.S. market. In July 2025, it closed a $112 million acquisition of QCEX, a CFTC-licensed exchange. The fake-bet campaign targeted U.S. audiences on American social media platforms — a tension that legal analysts say could give regulators fresh grounds to revisit the company's no-action status, according to TechCrunch.
Insider Trading, Judge Conflicts, and a $1.6 Billion Valuation at Risk
The fake-bet story is not Polymarket's only problem in 2026. In April, the SDNY and CFTC charged a U.S. Army soldier named Gannon Ken Van Dyke with insider trading on Polymarket using classified military data. In June, the WSJ separately reported that 20% of judges in Polymarket's own dispute system held personal bets on markets they were judging, according to TechCrunch.
These scandals arrive at a fragile moment. Polymarket reached a record $1.48 billion in open interest just one week before the fake-bet story broke. Reports say investors including ICE — the owner of the New York Stock Exchange — have been in talks that valued the company at $1.6 billion. Columbia University researchers estimated that 25% to 60% of Polymarket's volume may be artificial, which would undermine the platform's value as a real-world forecasting tool, according to Zamin.uz.
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