Hochul Statewide Lead
New York Governor Kathy Hochul leads challenger Bruce Blakeman statewide in latest poll
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The poll also found Democratic Attorney General Letitia James leading Republican challenger Saritha Komatireddy 52% to 39%, while Comptroller Tom DiNapoli led Republican Joseph Hernandez 56% to 33%.
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Blakeman’s Long Island advantage is especially strong among independent and minor-party voters, whom he leads 57% to 31%.
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Hochul leads Blakeman 61% to 27% in New York City and 48% to 46% in the metro suburbs, while Blakeman leads upstate 47% to 44%.
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Blakeman’s 51%-43% lead on Long Island is smaller than Lee Zeldin’s 14-point advantage there in 2022, and Siena Research Institute director Don Levy said Blakeman must win “astronomically big” on Long Island because New York City is expected to support Hochul strongly.
New York Gov. Kathy Hochul maintains a 9-point lead over Republican challenger Bruce Blakeman statewide, according to a Siena Research Institute poll conducted in mid-September. Hochul reaches 50% support with positive job-approval ratings, while 66% of voters—including 37% of Republicans—believe she will win the race. Siena Research Institute director Don Levy noted there remains "a race for governor in New York" with six weeks until Election Day, though Hochul's margin has narrowed from her 17-point lead over 2022 challenger Lee Zeldin at the same point two years ago.
The race shows sharp regional divides. Hochul dominates New York City 61%-27% and leads the metro suburbs 48%-46%, but Blakeman holds a 51%-43% edge on Long Island and leads upstate 47%-44%. Blakeman's Long Island advantage falls short of what Republicans achieved in 2022. Siena Research Institute research shows Blakeman must win "astronomically big" on Long Island to overcome Hochul's overwhelming strength in Democratic-leaning New York City.
Trump's Endorsement Backfires on Blakeman
President Donald Trump's endorsement of Blakeman appears to hurt more than help. Voters say the endorsement is more likely to damage Blakeman's campaign by a 51%-30% margin, Siena Research Institute found. In sharp contrast, New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani's endorsement of Hochul is viewed favorably. A 50%-30% majority of voters see Mamdani's backing as positive for the incumbent governor.
Blakeman's Long Island Strategy Faces Tall Odds
Blakeman's path to victory depends heavily on running up massive margins on Long Island, where he currently leads 51%-43%. This nine-point advantage is substantially smaller than Republican Lee Zeldin's 14-point win there in 2022. Blakeman performs especially well among Long Island independents and minor-party voters, leading 57%-31% in that group. However, Siena Research Institute research shows he must overcome Hochul's decisive 61%-27% advantage in New York City.
Democrats Solidify Leads in Down-Ballot Races
While the governor's race tightens, Democratic statewide candidates hold commanding leads. Attorney General Letitia James leads Republican challenger Saritha Komatireddy 52%-39%, according to Siena Research Institute. Comptroller Tom DiNapoli maintains an even larger advantage, leading Republican Joseph Hernandez 56%-33%. These races show far wider margins than the competitive gubernatorial contest.
Voters Reject Trump's Lake Ontario Rename and Data Centers
New Yorkers overwhelmingly oppose President Trump's proposal to rename Lake Ontario to "Lake America." Siena Research Institute found 74% of voters oppose the plan, with just 19% in favor. Even among Republicans, only 48% support the rename while 41% oppose it. Additionally, 63% of voters oppose building large data centers in their local areas post-moratorium, showing strong public resistance to major infrastructure projects.
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