Gold Steady Before Jobs Report
Gold Prices Hold Steady as Investors Await Key US Jobs Data and Fed Rate Clues
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Key Points
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Initial U.S. jobless claims were 297,000 for the week ending September 26, slightly below expectations; the report said claims had remained below a key level for a third consecutive month. Ten-year Treasury yields were near 5.30%, their highest in almost 20 years.
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Iran said it had received Washington’s response to its latest proposal to revive the collapsed Gulf ceasefire, days after President Donald Trump said he had rejected the proposal.
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August core PCE inflation rose 0.2% month over month and 3% year over year. After the data, markets lowered the estimated probability of an October Fed rate increase to about 37%, from roughly 45%; TradeStation Global strategist David Russell said it bolstered the case for not hiking in October.
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Other precious metals had mixed moves: one report put silver up 0.5% at $60.69 an ounce and platinum up 0.1% at $1,708.43, while palladium fell 0.3% to $1,200.15.
Gold prices held steady on Thursday as investors waited for the September U.S. jobs report to signal where the Federal Reserve might go next with interest rates. Kitco reported that gold remained resilient even as a strong labor market and elevated Treasury yields pushed against bullion prices. Softer inflation data had already cooled expectations of an October rate hike, but traders still see a real chance of an increase in December.
The mixed signals left gold in a holding pattern. A firm U.S. dollar and Treasury yields near 5.30%—their highest in almost 20 years—weighed on the metal. Yet The Duke noted that gold's resilience above $4,000 an ounce suggests deeper demand may fuel further gains once the Fed's rate cycle shifts. U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks added another layer of uncertainty for precious metals markets.
Jobs Report Shows Cooling, But Labor Market Stays Firm
Initial jobless claims came in at 297,000 for the week ending September 26—slightly below forecasts. Kitco reported that claims had stayed below a critical threshold for a third straight month, signaling a resilient labor market. This strength in employment data reinforces expectations that interest rates could remain elevated longer, which typically pressures gold prices since higher rates increase the cost of holding non-yielding assets like bullion.
Inflation Data Pulls October Rate Hike Odds Down Sharply
Core PCE inflation rose just 0.2% month over month and 3% year over year in August. After that softer-than-expected report, market odds of an October Fed rate increase dropped to about 37%, down from roughly 45%. Kitco strategist David Russell said the data bolstered the case for holding rates steady in October. December, however, still looks like a live possibility for another hike.
Silver and Platinum Rise, But Palladium Slips
Other precious metals sent mixed signals on the day. Silver rose 0.5% to $60.69 an ounce, while platinum ticked up 0.1% to $1,708.43. Palladium moved in the opposite direction, falling 0.3% to $1,200.15. The uneven action across the precious metals complex reflected broader uncertainty about the economic outlook and the Fed's path forward.
Iran Diplomacy Adds Geopolitical Risk to Gold Markets
Iran said it had received Washington's response to its latest proposal to revive a collapsed Gulf ceasefire. This came days after President Donald Trump said he had rejected the prior Iranian proposal. Geopolitical tensions and diplomatic uncertainty typically support gold as a hedge, though the metal's recent steadiness suggests investors are not yet pricing in heightened risk from these talks.
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