Amazon's Future at Stake
Colombia, Peru, and Brazil's Political Shifts May Redefine Amazon's Environmental Future
Anonymous
Colombia's far-right president-elect Abelardo de la Espriella claimed a narrow victory on June 21, winning just 49.7% of the vote — a margin of roughly 251,000 ballots out of 25.6 million cast, according to AP. Nicknamed "El Tigre," the lawyer and leader of the "Defenders of the Homeland" party has vowed to reverse the green policies of outgoing President Gustavo Petro, promising to support "all the fracking possible" and expand mining.
The win is part of a broader rightward shift sweeping the Amazon basin. Peru's Keiko Fujimori holds an unassailable lead after a June 7 runoff, according to Miami Herald. In Brazil, polls show Flávio Bolsonaro — son of former President Jair Bolsonaro — tied with President Lula ahead of October elections. Together, these three countries hold the largest shares of the Amazon rainforest on Earth.
Three Leaders Who Could Open the Amazon to Extraction
De la Espriella's rise ends an era defined by Petro, who halted new oil and gas exploration and championed a global fossil fuel phaseout treaty. De la Espriella plans to undo those limits fast. He has backed fracking and expanded mining, and his VP-elect José Manuel Restrepo signals a business-friendly cabinet, according to Atlantic Council.
In Peru, Keiko Fujimori — set to become the country's first elected female president — is expected to ease rules on extractive industries in the Amazonian Madre de Dios region, according to Reuters. She will be Peru's ninth president in a decade. In Brazil, Flávio Bolsonaro has proposed changes to let agribusiness and mining expand into the Amazon, framing it as "economic liberation," according to Mongabay.
The Amazon at a Tipping Point: Deforestation Numbers Alarm Scientists
The stakes are enormous. In 2025, the Amazon basin lost 736,484 hectares of forest. Brazil, Peru, and Colombia were the top contributors, according to MAAP. Scientists warn the Amazon risks crossing a 20–25% deforestation tipping point — after which parts of the forest could permanently turn to dry savanna.
Amazon Watch calls 2026 a "year of decision." Gold prices soaring between $4,500 and $5,000 per ounce are fueling a surge in illegal mining across the basin, according to Washington Times. Indigenous leader Tabea Casique of AIDESEP noted that illegal mining has grown into a $12 billion industry, and major political parties lack concrete plans to stop it.
A Backlash Against the "Pink Tide" — and What It Costs the Climate
The rightward swing is largely a reaction to the so-called "Pink Tide" — the wave of left-wing governments that peaked across Latin America in the early 2020s. Petro's economic policies frustrated Colombian business sectors. Elizabeth Dickinson of the International Crisis Group said there is "an interesting alignment" across the Andes, with new governments believing growth and conservation can happen at the same time, according to AP.
But analysts are skeptical. In Brazil, Lula cut Amazon deforestation by 36–61% in early 2026 compared to 2025, according to Mongabay. Still, corruption scandals and economic frustration — especially among voters aged 16 to 34, where disapproval of Lula now exceeds approval — have opened the door for the Bolsonaro family's return, according to The Straits Times.
Global Climate Deals Now Hang in the Balance
The 2023 Belém Declaration — signed by all eight Amazonian nations — pledged to stop the forest from reaching a "point of no return." But it set no hard deforestation targets. COP30 in Belém in November 2025 ended in what Mongabay called a "bitter compromise," with no formal deal to end fossil fuel extraction.
The Trump administration has already endorsed De la Espriella and hit Brazil with 25% tariffs, citing "illegal deforestation" and "unfair trade practices" — a claim Lula called a "lie," according to AP. Multilateral institutions like the IDB are now pushing a "bioeconomy" model — the idea that the forest is worth more standing than cut — as a last-ditch way to appeal to incoming conservative leaders.
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