Immigration Insurance Fact Check
Experts Refute Trump's Claim Linking Immigration to Rising Car Insurance Premiums, Citing Pandemic
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President Donald Trump claimed on Truth Social that illegal immigration drove up car insurance premiums — and that his crackdown on the border deserves credit for bringing them down. Experts say that is false. The Insurance Information Institute stated flatly that there is "no evidence" linking illegal immigration to the rise or fall of premiums.
Car insurance costs surged 17.4% in 2023 alone — the largest annual jump since 1976, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The average full-coverage policy now runs about $2,500 per year, up from roughly $1,600 in 2021. Analysts point to the COVID-19 pandemic, rising repair costs, and ballooning lawsuit payouts as the real culprits.
What Trump Actually Claimed and Why It's Wrong
Trump posted a graphic on Truth Social on June 12 showing year-over-year premium changes from 2021 to 2026. He wrote that "millions of illegals" were "clogging our roads and crashing" into people. His post credited his immigration policies for a recent dip in rates.
KTAR News and other outlets quickly pushed back. Mark Friedlander of the Insurance Information Institute said insurance rates are set by "loss trends and inflation" — not by who is crossing the border. Dale Porfilio, the institute's chief insurance officer, added that immigration status is simply not a factor in how actuaries calculate statewide premium hikes.
COVID-19 and Repair Costs Are the Real Drivers
The post-pandemic era created a "perfect storm" for insurers. The cost of auto bodywork jumped 40% over three years, according to CCC Intelligent Solutions. Modern cars packed with sensors and cameras cost far more to fix after even minor crashes. Insurers had to raise rates just to keep up.
"Nuclear verdicts" — jury awards over $10 million in auto liability cases — also shot up 60% since 2018, according to Marathon Strategies. AM Best, a credit rating agency for the insurance industry, says this "social inflation" is a far bigger driver of premiums than who is behind the wheel.
Border-State Data Undermines the Immigration Argument
If undocumented immigrants were truly driving up costs, states on the border — Texas, Arizona, and California — would show the biggest spikes. They don't. Florida and Louisiana, states with strict immigration laws but high hurricane exposure, have seen some of the steepest increases in the country, according to the Insurance Information Institute.
Research from the Insurance Research Council shows that the share of uninsured U.S. drivers has held steady at around 14% for a decade — even as migration patterns shifted. In fact, states that allow undocumented immigrants to get driver's licenses often see fewer hit-and-run accidents, because drivers no longer fear deportation after a minor crash.
Why This Claim Could Make the Problem Worse
The political stakes are high. Moody's Analytics notes that car insurance is one of the top three items keeping inflation above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. If voters blame immigration rather than market forces, pressure may grow for policies that actually backfire.
Experts at the Insurance Research Council warn that banning licenses for undocumented immigrants could increase the number of truly uninsured drivers — making the roads riskier and pushing premiums even higher. According to S&P Global Market Intelligence, cumulative rate increases in some states have already topped 40% since 2020, and no policy change at the border is likely to reverse that trend.
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