Drone Deal Stalls MiGs
Poland Halts MiG-29 Transfers to Ukraine Over Unfulfilled Drone Technology Exchange Agreement
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Key Points
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A bilateral security agreement between Poland and Ukraine, outlining a potential transfer of Polish MiG-29 jets, would be contingent on Warsaw receiving replacement aircraft first.
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The proposed exchange was framed as MiGs for access to Ukraine's drone production technology, including drone manufacturing know-how, not merely drones themselves.
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Poland aimed to gain access to combat-tested Ukrainian drone technology and know-how to bolster its own UAV capabilities, acknowledging Ukraine's advanced unmanned systems.
Poland has effectively cancelled the transfer of up to 14 MiG-29 fighter jets to Ukraine, citing Kyiv's failure to deliver on a promised technology exchange. Defense Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz said it plainly on June 29: "There are no MiGs for Ukraine because there are no drones, or drone capabilities, for Poland," according to Polsat News.
The collapse of the so-called "MiGs-for-Drones" deal marks a sharp shift in Polish-Ukrainian relations — from unconditional solidarity to hard-nosed reciprocity. It leaves Ukraine without Soviet-era jets its pilots are already trained to fly, at a moment when it lost at least two MiG-29s on June 27 alone, The Kyiv Independent reported.
How the MiGs-for-Drones Deal Fell Apart
Poland delivered 14 MiG-29s to Ukraine in spring 2023, becoming the first NATO ally to transfer fighter jets. A July 2024 bilateral security agreement then outlined a second transfer of up to 14 more aircraft, contingent on Poland first receiving replacement fighters, according to Ukrainska Pravda. That precondition was met on May 22, 2026, when the first three U.S.-made F-35A jets landed at Łask Air Base.
With the F-35s in hand, Warsaw expected Kyiv to follow through on sharing drone manufacturing know-how and anti-jamming technology. Ukraine did not. On June 12, Kosiniak-Kamysz signaled the deal was in trouble, Breaking Defense reported. By June 15, Deputy Defense Minister Cezary Tomczyk confirmed the transfer was suspended. On June 29, the minister made it official in a televised interview.
Poland Wants Ukraine's Battle-Tested Drone Secrets
Ukraine has become the world's leading user of small tactical drones in combat. Poland wants access to that edge — specifically manufacturing know-how, anti-jamming systems, and counter-drone technology — to plug what analysts call Poland's "drone gap." Warsaw's domestic drone program, known as Gladius, has lagged far behind, according to Euractiv.
Prime Minister Donald Tusk launched the "Drone Armada" project in April 2026 to fix that problem, The Kyiv Independent reported. But Ukraine has been reluctant to share its drone tech. Analysts say that technology is Ukraine's primary asymmetric advantage on the battlefield, and Kyiv fears sharing it risks it leaking through less-secure allied networks.
Deeper Diplomatic Rifts Fuel the Standoff
The drone dispute is not the only fault line. Polish outrage has grown over Ukraine naming a military unit after the Ukrainian Insurgent Army, a group tied to the 1943 Volhynia massacre of tens of thousands of ethnic Poles. Kosiniak-Kamysz stated bluntly that Ukraine "will not join the EU with Bandera," linking military aid to a resolution of that historical grievance, according to Defence24.
Analysts at Defence24 suggest the drone dispute also serves a domestic political purpose. Kosiniak-Kamysz leads the PSL party and is widely seen as positioning himself as a defender of Polish national interest ahead of municipal elections — contrasting sharply with the "limitless aid" posture of the previous Law and Justice government.
Ukraine Turns to Sweden as Poland's MiGs Sit Grounded
Between 9 and 14 Polish MiG-29 airframes are now effectively withheld from Ukraine, The War Zone reported. Without them, Ukraine faces a critical air power gap while it waits for F-16 deliveries and a reported $3 billion deal with Sweden for up to 36 Saab Gripen C/D jets, with first deliveries expected in early 2027, according to The Kyiv Post.
Poland, meanwhile, is transitioning fully to the F-35 and FA-50 platforms. Its remaining MiG-29s may end up in long-term storage or stripped for spare parts. Kosiniak-Kamysz insisted Warsaw still supports Ukraine — but on different terms. "The current Polish government defends national interests more resolutely," he said, while calling early weapons deliveries in 2022 the right call regardless.
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