SpaceX Valuation Skyrockets
SpaceX Shares Surge Past Amazon Valuation Post-IPO, Setting New Market Record
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Key Points
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SpaceX’s surge translated into an estimated $433 billion market-cap increase on Monday—described as the second-biggest single-day market-cap gain for any U.S. corporation, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
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Trading was unusually intense early on Tuesday: more than $1.76 billion worth of SpaceX shares had already changed hands before 5 a.m. Eastern Time, exceeding the combined premarket volume of Nvidia, Microsoft, Tesla, and Apple in the same window.
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JPMorgan Asset Management strategist Stephanie Aliaga tied expected volatility to supply mechanics, noting that only about 4.5% of SpaceX’s available shares traded on day one and that the six-month mark is when increased supply from lockups and index-related rebalancing could create more meaningful price swings.
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Elon Musk’s personal wealth was reported to have crossed $1.3 trillion, and SpaceX plus Tesla were described as reaching a combined market cap of about $4.4 trillion—greater than Apple and roughly equivalent to Google.
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Swissquote Bank’s Ipek Ozkardeskaya said, “We can say with certainty that this valuation makes absolutely no sense today. People are buying SpaceX in the expectation that others will buy too and push the price higher - that's speculation,” warning options activity was expected to be heavy, volatile, and potentially expensive.
SpaceX shares have surged more than 50% above their $135 IPO offer price, pushing the company's market cap to roughly $2.8 to $2.9 trillion and past Amazon's valuation of about $2.67 trillion, according to Stock Analysis. The rocket and AI company went public on June 12, raising $85.7 billion — the largest IPO in history, nearly triple the size of Saudi Aramco's 2019 debut — and has not slowed down since, according to Nasdaq.
On Monday alone, SpaceX's market cap grew by an estimated $433 billion in a single session — the second-biggest single-day gain for any U.S. company, per Dow Jones Market Data. By Tuesday morning, more than $1.76 billion in SpaceX shares had changed hands before 5 a.m. Eastern Time. That topped the combined premarket volume of Nvidia, Microsoft, Tesla, and Apple, according to Reuters.
From $135 Offer Price to a $2.9 Trillion Giant
SpaceX priced its IPO at $135 on June 11. Shares opened at $150 and closed at $160.95 on day one — a 19% first-day gain. Since then, the stock has kept climbing past $200 in premarket trading, according to NDTV Profit. The offering was reportedly oversubscribed by nearly 400%, a sign of enormous demand before a single share traded publicly.
The IPO's $85.7 billion haul came after underwriters exercised their overallotment option in full. SpaceX's 2025 revenue was $18.67 billion — up 33% year over year — but the company posted a net loss of $4.94 billion. Starlink, its satellite internet service, is the only profitable segment, generating $4.4 billion in operating profit across more than 10.3 million subscribers in 164 countries.
Index Funds and a Tiny Float Are Driving the Frenzy
Only about 4.5% of SpaceX's total shares are currently trading on the open market. That tiny supply — called the "float" — means even modest buying pressure can send the price soaring. JPMorgan strategist Stephanie Aliaga called the setup a "coiled spring," warning that limited supply today makes the stock far more sensitive to swings, according to JPMorgan Asset Management.
Making things more intense: major stock indexes like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 are fast-tracking SpaceX for inclusion. When that happens, passive funds that track those indexes are required to buy SPCX shares automatically — regardless of price. That forced buying creates a short-term floor for the stock. But it also means a sharper drop is possible if sentiment shifts, according to The Globe and Mail.
Analysts Warn the $2.9 Trillion Price Tag Defies Logic
Not everyone is cheering. Ipek Ozkardeskaya of Swissquote Bank said bluntly: "This valuation makes absolutely no sense today. People are buying SpaceX in the expectation that others will buy too and push the price higher — that's speculation." She also warned that options activity on the stock was expected to be heavy, volatile, and potentially expensive, according to Hawaii Tribune-Herald.
Morningstar analysts put SpaceX's fair value at just $780 billion — meaning the stock may be roughly 70% overvalued based on current cash flows. The company is burning close to $9 billion annually in operating costs. On the bull side, Morgan Stanley projects SpaceX revenue could reach $330 billion by 2030, driven by Starlink becoming the backbone of global internet access.
A Lockup Cliff Looms Six Months Out
The current calm — such as it is — may not last. In December 2026, a six-month employee lockup expires. That means hundreds of billions of dollars in newly sellable shares could hit the market at once. Aliaga flagged this moment as the point when "increased supply from lockups and index-related rebalancing could create more meaningful price swings," according to JPMorgan Asset Management.
Elon Musk now holds 83.6% of voting power through Class B shares. His personal net worth has crossed $1.3 trillion, making him the world's first-ever trillionaire. SpaceX and Tesla combined are now worth about $4.4 trillion — more than Apple and roughly equal to Google — according to Head Topics. For now, the stock's next big test is whether index-driven demand can outlast the coming supply shock.
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