Mariners Favorited Against Astros
Mariners Host Struggling Astros in Seattle as Logan Gilbert Takes the Mound
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Key Points
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Houston enters the matchup with a 77-79 record, while Seattle is 73-83. Houston has hit .240 with a .313 on-base percentage and .410 slugging percentage; Seattle has posted a .232 average, .312 OBP and .380 slugging percentage.
2
Yordan Alvarez leads Houston with 170 hits and 99 RBIs, while Isaac Paredes and José Altuve have combined for 264 hits and 135 RBIs. For Seattle, Randy Arozarena leads with 154 hits and 76 RBIs, while Josh Naylor and Julio RodrÃguez have combined for 294 hits and 120 RBIs.
3
The Mariners have won four consecutive home games against the Astros, and Houston has lost nine of its last 10 night games against Seattle after a loss.
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Seattle catcher Cal Raleigh has been especially productive against fastballs and sweepers over his last 25 games, recording a .478 isolated-power mark and a 35.7% barrel rate.
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The Covers projection gave Seattle a 59% chance to win and the under a 57% chance to cash. It also noted that Houston ranked 25th in expected slugging percentage and 29th in expected weighted on-base average against right-handed pitching during the month.
The Houston Astros and Seattle Mariners square off Tuesday in a matchup between two struggling AL West teams. According to Covers, Seattle enters as the favorite on the moneyline with a 59% projected win probability. The Mariners also hold a 73-83 record versus Houston's 77-79, and have won four straight home games against the Astros.
Logan Gilbert Takes the Mound for Seattle
Logan Gilbert will start for the Mariners after posting a 12-10 record with a 3.69 ERA and 194 strikeouts this season. Covers noted that Gilbert's recent form and pitcher-friendly conditions favor the under in total runs. The matchup features Houston's Cristian Javier, who is 2-6 with a 5.31 ERA but has performed better in his last five starts against Seattle's lineup.
Houston Struggles Against Right-Handed Pitching
The Astros have ranked poorly against right-handed pitchers in September. Covers reported that Houston ranked 25th in expected slugging percentage and 29th in expected weighted on-base average against righties during the month. This disadvantage weighs heavily against Javier's struggles, as Seattle's offense has posted a .232 average with a .312 on-base percentage and .380 slugging percentage.
Christian Walker leads Houston's power with 25 home runs and 80 RBIs, but he's batting just .221 and went hitless in his most recent game. Meanwhile, Yordan Alvarez paces the Astros with 170 hits and 99 RBIs. For Seattle, Randy Arozarena leads with 154 hits and 76 RBIs, while Josh Naylor and Julio RodrÃguez have combined for 294 hits and 120 RBIs.
Mariners Catcher Hot Against Fastballs
Seattle catcher Cal Raleigh has been especially productive in his last 25 games. He boasts a .478 isolated-power mark and a 35.7% barrel rate against fastballs and sweepers. This offensive edge gives the Mariners a clear advantage in run production, particularly against a pitcher in Javier who has struggled with command and consistency.
Why Analysts Favor Seattle and the Under
Covers projects the under at a 57% cash probability, citing Gilbert's form, pitcher-friendly conditions, and Javier's unpredictability. The Astros have lost nine of their last 10 night games against Seattle, extending a recent drought. Seattle's home advantage combined with Javier's elevated ERA and Houston's offensive struggles make the Mariners the clear play on the moneyline.
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