Taiwan Strait War Warning
U.S. Diplomat Warns Taiwan Conflict Could Exceed World War II Economic Damage
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Key Points
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Greene said Taiwan does not need to prove it could win a war outright to deter an attack; instead, it must convince China that landing and sustaining a large ground force would be exceptionally difficult.
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He specifically cited Taiwan’s heavily urbanized and mountainous terrain and the challenge of sustaining forces across roughly 145 kilometers of turbulent water as key obstacles to a Chinese invasion.
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Greene said Taiwan could draw lessons from the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, particularly in asymmetric warfare, new technologies, mission command and societal resilience. He highlighted Ukraine’s use of mission command, which delegates operational decisions to lower-level personnel.
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Prediction-market pricing cited in one report put the perceived probability of a Chinese invasion by Dec. 31, 2027 at 10.5%, down from 12%.
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Greene rejected claims that Taiwan’s deterrence efforts were provocative or that U.S. support for the island’s defense preparations represented a policy shift.
A U.S. diplomat warned that a war over Taiwan could inflict greater economic damage on the world than World War II. Raymond Greene, director of the American Institute in Taiwan, spoke at a Taipei security forum and said preventing conflict is a top priority for the Trump administration Conservative Daily News. He pointed to Taiwan's central role in semiconductor production and the Strait's critical shipping lanes as reasons why a conflict could devastate the global economy Daily Caller.
Greene said the expected September 24 meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi Jinping offers a chance to reduce misunderstandings. He emphasized that deterrence depends on making a Chinese invasion extremely difficult, not necessarily defeating China outright IJR. Taiwan is responding with higher defense spending, expecting next year's budget to exceed NT$1 trillion, while market predictions suggest a modest 10.5% chance of invasion by the end of 2027 Conservative Daily News.
Taiwan's Geography Makes Invasion Prohibitively Difficult
Taiwan's 145-kilometer-wide strait, mountainous terrain, and densely urbanized areas create major obstacles for an invading force. Greene cited these geographic factors as key to Taiwan's deterrence strategy Conservative Daily News. The turbulent waters and challenging terrain mean China would struggle to land and sustain large ground forces across the strait.
Why a Taiwan Conflict Could Eclipse World War II Economically
Taiwan manufactures the vast majority of the world's advanced semiconductors, making it crucial to global technology supply chains. The Taiwan Strait also carries major trade routes and energy shipments. A conflict would simultaneously disrupt manufacturing, interrupt shipping, trigger international sanctions, and force costly supply-chain restructuring Daily Caller. The combined effect would far exceed the economic shock of World War II IJR.
Taiwan Looks to Ukraine and Asymmetric Warfare Lessons
Greene said Taiwan can draw lessons from ongoing wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, particularly in asymmetric warfare and new military technologies Conservative Daily News. He highlighted Ukraine's use of mission command, which pushes operational decisions down to lower-level personnel for faster, more flexible response. Taiwan's military modernization efforts reflect this strategic shift toward making sustained invasion logistically and militarily punishing for China BizPac Review.
Trump Administration Sees September Summit as Critical Moment
The planned September 24 Trump-Xi meeting is viewed as a crucial opportunity to reduce miscalculation between the superpowers IJR. Greene rejected claims that Taiwan's defense preparations are provocative or represent a U.S. policy shift. Instead, he framed strengthened Indo-Pacific partnerships and support for Taiwan's self-defense as essential to maintaining stability. Clearer communication and reciprocal actions at the summit could help prevent routine military activity from escalating into unintended crisis.
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