Rising Inflation Expectations
US Consumer One-Year Inflation Expectations Rise to 4.6 Percent in September
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U.S. consumers’ one-year inflation expectations rose to 4.6% in September, their highest level since June, while the five-year outlook edged up to 3.4%. The Dallas Fed’s weekly economic index was little changed at around 3% in mid-September, with its 13-week average at 2.86%. Market participants are also watching whether the Federal Reserve remains committed to its 2% inflation target, as their expectations for the interest rates needed to reach it shape pricing at the shorter end of the bond market.
Key Points
1
The University of Michigan’s one-year inflation expectation rose from 4.0% in August to 4.6% in September.
2
The five-year inflation outlook of 3.4% was slightly higher than the 3.3% reading recorded in each of the preceding three months.
3
The Dallas Fed’s weekly economic index was 3.03% for the week ended September 19, compared with 3.02% for the week ended September 12.
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