Brazil Presidential Election Polls
New Brazilian polls show a tight race between President Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro.
Anonymous
Recent polls show Brazil’s 2026 presidential race between President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro remains close, especially in hypothetical runoff matchups. A national Genial/Quaest survey puts Lula ahead 37% to 33% in the first round but shows the candidates tied at 41% in a runoff. Other surveys also find close contests: BTG/Nexus gives Lula a 46%-44% runoff lead, while polls in Minas Gerais and the Greater ABC region show 46%-46% ties; in Pará, Lula leads 44%-38%. The results vary by poll and region, underscoring the race’s uncertainty ahead of the October vote.
Key Points
1
The Genial/Quaest poll interviewed 2,004 voters from September 24 to 27 and had a margin of error of two percentage points; it was the pollster’s final full survey before the October 4 first round.
2
In Minas Gerais, the Real Time survey put Lula at 41% and Flávio Bolsonaro at 37% in the first-round scenario, in addition to finding a 46%-46% runoff tie.
3
The Real Time Big Data survey in Pará interviewed 1,600 voters from September 23 to 26 and reported a two-percentage-point margin of error.
4
Brazil’s first round is scheduled for October 4, with a runoff on October 25 if no candidate wins outright. Lula is seeking a fourth term, while Flávio Bolsonaro is running after his father, Jair Bolsonaro, was barred from running and imprisoned.
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