Silver Market Retreats
Silver Prices Tumble Globally as Stronger Dollar and Higher US Rate Expectations Weigh
Anonymous
Key Points
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MCX silver futures in India cooled, with July at Rs 2,26,152 per kg and September at Rs 2,31,509 per kg, down about 3.5% on both contracts, as traders priced in a stronger dollar and higher US rate expectations.
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In international markets, Comex July silver futures dropped to USD 62.01 per ounce, a 5.45% slide, with traders citing uncertainty around US–Iran peace talks; the energy backdrop included the US granting Iran a 60-day license to sell oil and improved Strait of Hormuz traffic as regional routes diversify.
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FXStreet data put spot silver at USD 62.18 per ounce on Tuesday, a 4.47% drop from Monday, with the year-to-date decline around 12.53% and the Gold/Silver ratio at 66.12, signaling a broader move lower amid dollar dynamics.
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Spot silver was trading near USD 61.89 per ounce in another market snapshot, marking a roughly 5% slide and underscoring renewed volatility after a recent rally and ongoing reassessment of risk preferences in metals.
Silver crashed hard on June 23, 2026, with Indian MCX futures for July delivery hitting ₹2,26,152 per kg — a drop of 3.48%, or ₹8,158 in a single session. FXStreet put spot silver at $62.18 per ounce internationally, down 4.47% from Monday's close of $65.09.
The selloff wiped out silver's 2026 gains and accelerated a year-to-date decline past 12.5%. Prices are now nearly 50% below the record high of $121.64 per ounce touched in January 2026. A surging US dollar and bets on higher US interest rates drove the rout on multiple fronts.
Dollar and Rate Fears Slam Silver on Both Fronts
The US Dollar Index (DXY) climbed to its highest level since May 2025, above 101. A stronger dollar makes silver more expensive for buyers using other currencies. That crushed demand. Analyst Pinky Yadav of Choice Broking said the dollar's rally is "reducing the appeal of non-yielding assets" like silver, according to Goodreturns.
Navneet Damani, Head of Research at Motilal Oswal, pointed to two key pressures: the dollar nearing a one-year high and the growing chance of a US rate hike in September. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, confirmed in May 2026, has adopted a "higher for longer" stance on rates. That pushed 10-year Treasury yields above 4.5%, making bonds more attractive than silver.
US-Iran Oil Deal Kills Silver's Geopolitical Premium
A major geopolitical shift added fuel to the selloff. On June 22, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced "General License X" — a 60-day waiver letting Iran sell oil again. Bessent wrote that "Iran has committed to free and open transit in the Strait of Hormuz." That news gutted silver's "war premium," which had been baked into prices above $100 per ounce.
Analyst Gaurav Garg of Lemonn Markets Desk said the uncertainty around US-Iran peace talks drove the "sharper decline" in silver compared to gold, according to market research. Comex July silver futures fell 5.45% to $62.01 per ounce. The Gold/Silver ratio jumped to 66.12 from 64.39 on Monday, showing silver underperformed gold on the day, per FXStreet data.
Indian Markets Feel the Sharpest Pain
In India, both MCX silver contracts fell steeply. July futures settled at ₹2,26,152 per kg, down ₹8,158. September futures dropped ₹8,629 to ₹2,31,509 per kg — a 3.59% fall. Dainik Jagran reported silver prices crashed ₹10,566 per kilogram in a single trading session in the physical bullion market, with gold also falling ₹2,522.
The ₹2.26 lakh level is a key psychological floor. Silver touched it briefly during a correction in March 2026 before recovering. Traders are now watching whether prices hold here or slide further toward the ₹2 lakh range if global pressure continues.
What Comes Next: Double Bottom or More Downside?
Bulls argue the selloff is a "healthy deleveraging." Physical demand for silver remains strong. The Silver Institute estimates a supply deficit of 73 million ounces in 2026 — a sixth straight year of undersupply. That fundamental tightness could put a floor under prices, even if paper markets keep falling.
Bears point to a technical breakdown. FXStreet analysts warn silver is in a "descending channel" and could slip toward $56 per ounce if a September rate hike gets fully priced in by markets. The next big test is the June 27 COMEX quarter-end settlement. That date could trigger either a "double bottom" bounce or a final leg lower, making it a critical moment for silver traders worldwide.
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