LeBron James Future
Prediction Markets Indicate LeBron James Likely to Remain with Lakers or Retire, Not Join Warriors
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LeBron James has told the Los Angeles Lakers he will not return for the 2026-27 season, ending an eight-year run with the franchise, according to ESPN. Agent Rich Paul delivered the news directly to Lakers President Rob Pelinka, Forbes reported. James, now 41, is set to play his 24th NBA season — just not in Los Angeles.
The move caught some off guard after prediction markets were widely misread. Crypto Briefing reported that a Kalshi market showing a 75% probability for "Stays with Lakers or Retires" was mistakenly circulated as a 75% chance of joining the Golden State Warriors. The real Warriors odds stood at just 15% at the time — though that number has since surged to 42% following Monday's news.
Warriors Execute Bold "Grand Plan" to Land LeBron
Golden State is now the frontrunner to sign James, but the deal hinges on one big trade. The Warriors want to acquire Anthony Davis — currently with the Washington Wizards — in exchange for Jimmy Butler. That swap would clear enough cap space to offer James the $15.1 million non-taxpayer mid-level exception, according to Hoops Rumors.
Draymond Green helped set the plan in motion. Green declined his $27.7 million player option on June 29, a move ESPN's Shams Charania reported was designed specifically to create salary cap room for James. Green and James have been close friends for years, and analysts say Green's opt-out was no coincidence.
Lakers Pivot Fully to the Luka Dončić Era
By letting James walk, the Lakers free up roughly $50 million in cap space, according to NBC Sports. The team already acquired Luka Dončić in 2025 and is now building entirely around the young star. The front office is reportedly eyeing Nikola Jokić or Giannis Antetokounmpo in the 2027 free agency window.
One thread ties James to Los Angeles even after he leaves. The Lakers guaranteed Bronny James' $2.3 million contract for 2026-27 on June 24, regardless of what his father decided. LeBron had long cited family stability as a reason to stay in LA. That argument is now off the table.
How the Market Data Got Badly Misread
The confusion started on June 14. Kalshi's prediction market priced the "Stays with Lakers or Retires" contract at 75 cents — meaning a 75% chance. But social media posts stripped out the context and reframed it as a 75% chance of joining the Warriors, Crypto Briefing reported. The actual Warriors contract sat at just 15 cents, or 15%.
The markets have since flipped hard. After James' departure was confirmed on June 30, the Warriors contract jumped to 42 cents. The "Lakers or Retires" contract fell to 42% as well. Prediction markets bundle retirement and staying in LA together, which makes the odds harder to read — and easier to misrepresent.
Retirement Remains the Only Real Rival to a Warriors Deal
Analysts say there is one scenario where James does not play at all. If Golden State fails to land Anthony Davis from the Wizards, the cap room for James largely disappears. Without a shot at a fifth championship ring, James may choose to retire rather than join a non-contender, according to Tim Kawakami of The Athletic.
ESPN's Brian Windhorst had initially doubted the Warriors could pull off the Davis trade. But on June 30 he admitted Golden State is now the "most likely destination" if the trade goes through. Bill Simmons went further, saying on June 15 he would "bet his life" James ends his career alongside Stephen Curry in San Francisco.
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