Crucial Early CFP Test
Memphis and Boise State Meet in Crucial Early-Season College Football Playoff Showdown
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Key Points
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Boise State’s loss at Oregon included several notable statistical shortcomings: the Broncos were outgained 497-274 and converted only 4 of 15 third downs, although they won the turnover battle 1-0. Maddux Madsen threw for 181 yards and three touchdowns, while Rasean Jones had four catches for 76 yards.
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Memphis’ win over Arkansas State was led by Jaylin Carter, who rushed 19 times for 183 yards and four touchdowns. Quarterback Marcus Stokes added 188 passing yards and two touchdowns but also threw two interceptions; Memphis won the turnover battle 4-2.
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Boise State’s recent program context includes a 9-5 record in 2025, a Mountain West championship victory over UNLV, and a 38-10 loss to Washington in the LA Bowl. The Broncos averaged 29.9 points per game last season while allowing 24.1.
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A betting analyst highlighted Boise State’s veteran offensive line, saying it protected Maddux Madsen effectively and helped create big plays in the running game. The same analysis said the spread had expanded to nearly double digits and backed Boise State as a moneyline selection.
Memphis and Boise State clash September 12 at Albertsons Stadium in a win-or-bust College Football Playoff race. Idaho Statesman reports the Broncos host the Tigers on new blue turf, with the winner positioned to grab the Group of Five automatic playoff spot. Boise State (0-1) lost 34-27 at Oregon despite leading at halftime and tying late. Memphis (2-0) arrives unbeaten under first-year coach Charles Huff, fresh off a dominant 523-yard offensive display.
Boise State is favored by roughly a touchdown, and Fresno Bee notes the Broncos' veteran roster has recent playoff experience from their 9-5 season last year. But Memphis' explosive offense—running back Jaylin Carter rushed for 183 yards and four touchdowns last week—makes this more than a formality. A Tigers upset would vault them straight into playoff contention.
Boise State's Close Loss Shows Veteran Poise
The Broncos trailed Oregon but refused to quit. Quarterback Maddux Madsen threw three touchdowns and 181 yards, while receiver Rasean Jones caught four passes for 76 yards. Gambling 911 highlighted Jones as a key receiving threat in this matchup. Boise State's veteran offensive line moved the ball effectively in the running game.
Still, statistics reveal cracks. Boise State was outgained 497-274 and converted only 4 of 15 third downs—a 26.7% success rate that won't work against Memphis' aggressive defense. The Broncos did win the turnover battle 1-0, forcing a mistake without giving one up. That discipline will be crucial against Memphis' mistake-prone quarterback Marcus Stokes.
Memphis' Offensive Firepower Could Exploit Broncos
Carter's rushing display last week was relentless: 19 carries, 183 yards, four touchdowns. Quarterback Marcus Stokes added 188 passing yards and two scores but also threw two interceptions. Memphis won turnovers 4-2, showing an aggressive, sometimes reckless attack. The Tigers' 523 total yards ranked among the nation's best in Week 2.
The key question: Can Memphis sustain this road performance? Albertsons Stadium is one of college football's toughest environments. Stokes will face a Broncos defense that allowed just 24.1 points per game last season. If Memphis' turnover margin turns against it, the road test becomes a liability.
Group of Five Playoff Spot Hangs in Balance
Memphis Tigers News reports this game determines who stays alive for the automatic College Football Playoff berth reserved for the Group of Five conference champion. One loss likely ends playoff dreams; one win keeps hope burning. Boise State, with Mountain West championship experience and a 38-10 LA Bowl loss last December, knows the stakes. Memphis, riding momentum under a new coaching regime, wants to prove it belongs.
The Broncos' recent 29.9 points-per-game average shows offensive firepower. But Boise State's third-down struggles and yardage deficit at Oregon suggest Memphis' athletic, swarming defense could disrupt the game plan. Oddsmakers favor Boise State, but upset potential is real if Memphis limits turnovers and controls time of possession.
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