Hormuz Tensions
Iran Warns Oil Tankers to Follow Approved Routes in Strait of Hormuz Amid Escalating Tensions
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Iran's Khatam al-Anbiya joint military command warned on July 2 that all oil tankers moving through the Strait of Hormuz must follow Tehran's "approved routes" or face a "forceful response." Commander Ali Abdollahi said any "deviation from the designated route... will be met with an immediate and forceful response," according to CT Post.
The warning lands just days after an Iranian drone struck the Panama-flagged tanker M/T Kiku on June 27, destroying 2 million barrels of oil. U.S. and Iranian diplomats are currently meeting through mediators in Doha, Qatar, but the talks have not stopped Iran from tightening its grip on the world's most critical oil chokepoint.
A Fragile Ceasefire Unravels on the Water
The current crisis follows a brief moment of calm. A U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding signed in Islamabad on June 15–17 had paused hostilities and lifted a naval blockade that began after joint U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on February 28. Iran agreed to a 60-day fee waiver for commercial ships. By June 24, maritime traffic had rebounded to 78 ships in a single day — a post-war high, according to Joplin Globe.
That recovery is now at risk. On June 25, Iran's Revolutionary Guard warned that a new "southern route" along the Omani coast was "unacceptable and extremely dangerous." On July 1, a foreign container ship ran aground while using a non-approved route. Tehran's July 2 warning is the sharpest signal yet that it intends to enforce its rules, according to Chron.
Iran Tries to Rewrite the Rules of the Strait
At the heart of this standoff is a legal fight. The Strait of Hormuz has long operated under "transit passage" — a rule from the UN's Law of the Sea treaty that gives all ships free movement through narrow international waterways. Iran signed but never ratified that treaty. Now Tehran is pushing a different rule called "innocent passage," which would let it block ships for security reasons, according to Michigan's Thumb.
Iran also wants to charge "maritime service fees" — modeled on tolls collected at the Suez and Panama Canals — to recover war-related damages. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio publicly rejected the plan, saying the strait is an international waterway. Iran's chief negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf says Iran won't move forward on a final deal until the U.S. honors its earlier Islamabad commitments.
Shipping Costs and Energy Supplies Hang in the Balance
The stakes for global energy are enormous. About 20 million barrels of oil per day — roughly 20% of all seaborne oil — pass through the strait, along with 20% of the world's liquefied natural gas. Bypass pipelines in Saudi Arabia and the UAE can handle only about 3.5 to 5.5 million barrels per day. Rerouting tankers around the Cape of Good Hope adds 10 to 20 days of travel time, according to My Journal Courier.
The financial pain is real. War-risk insurance for a single strait transit has jumped from 0.25% of a ship's value before the war to between 3% and 8% today. That means insuring a $150 million tanker for one trip now costs up to $12 million. Container shipping rates to the U.S. West Coast have surged 120% since mid-May, hitting roughly $6,200 per large cargo box, according to Joplin Globe.
Doha Talks Continue but a Miscalculation Looms
U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are in Doha conducting technical talks through Qatari mediators. President Trump confirmed "progress" but said the U.S. Navy will protect the "free flow of commerce" through the strait. Iran's continued presence of IRGC patrol boats and U.S. fighter jets in the same narrow waters means tensions could boil over quickly, according to CT Post.
Geopolitical analysts say the navigation dispute is really about bargaining leverage in the stalled nuclear talks. Iran is set to hold the funeral of its Supreme Leader starting July 4, a moment that could inflame nationalist sentiment and make compromise harder. S&P Global analysts note that the June 27 tanker attacks and the July 2 warning have already shattered the fragile shipping confidence that had been slowly rebuilding since the ceasefire.
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