Tellez's MLB Value Bets
Tony Tellez Unveils Five MLB Value Picks for July 24, Backing Underdogs and Totals
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Key Points
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Matthew Boyd has been rolling, posting a 2.57 ERA and 1.14 WHIP over his last five starts, with a 42% ground-ball rate; Pittsburgh also struggles against left-handed starters (.239 average, .308 on-base) which helps justify the Cubs' underdog value at +109.
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Zach Latell surrenders 2.3 home runs per nine innings this season, a factor in Washington’s vulnerability even as Arizona’s offense has heated up with a .531 slugging percentage over its last six games, supporting a high-scoring projection in Diamondbacks–Nationals.
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Cam Schlittler has a strong road profile (2.2 ERA, 0.96 WHIP over 21 starts; road WHIP around 1.18), while Philadelphia’s Luzardo has shown home-park vulnerability with opponents slugging .464 at home, a dynamic that underpins New York’s upside in the Yankees–Phillies clash.
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Roki Sasaki carries a concerning 2.0 home runs per nine, and the Mets sit at just .237 hitting at home; paired with Manaea’s 1.4 HR/9 and two bullpens in solid form, the Dodgers–Mets Under 9 is reinforced by limited home-run impact and bullpen dominance.
Tony Tellez is targeting five MLB plays for July 24, leaning on underdogs and one total to find value in Friday's slate, according to Tony's Picks. The picks span the Rockies, Cubs, Diamondbacks-Nationals, Yankees, and Dodgers-Mets, with each bet built on current form, platoon matchups, and bullpen health.
The common thread across all five plays is identifying spots where the market has undervalued a team's recent momentum or a starter's true form. Tellez is not simply chasing long shots — each underdog pick comes with a specific statistical edge.
Rockies Run Line and Cubs Underdog Value Stand Out
Tellez opens with the Colorado Rockies at +1.5 on the run line, priced at -105 against Milwaukee, per Tony's Picks. Colorado's offense has been hot lately, and the run-line trend favors taking the Rockies to stay within a run even if they lose outright. The Brewers hold a pitching edge, but Tellez believes the market overvalues it.
The Cubs at +109 against Pittsburgh is the second play. Matthew Boyd has been sharp over his last five starts, posting a 2.57 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP with a 42% ground-ball rate. Pittsburgh also struggles against left-handed starters, hitting just .239 with a .308 on-base percentage. That combo makes Chicago a live underdog at a plus price.
Diamondbacks-Nationals Over Powered by Homer-Prone Pitching
Tellez projects a high-scoring game in Washington, backing the Over 9.5 in Diamondbacks-Nationals. Arizona's offense has caught fire, slugging .531 over its last six games. The Nationals' starter, Zach Latell, gives up 2.3 home runs per nine innings this season — a rate that plays right into Arizona's power surge.
Both bullpens are also vulnerable, which adds more paths to the Over hitting. When a starter allows power and the relievers can't lock things down, run totals tend to swell. Tellez sees enough firepower on both sides to push past 9.5 runs.
Yankees Starter Edge Sets Up a Plus-Money Opportunity
New York opens as a +115 underdog against Philadelphia, a number Tellez sees as mispriced. Cam Schlittler carries a 2.20 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP over 21 starts. His road WHIP sits around 1.18, still a strong mark, per Predictem. Meanwhile, Phillies starter Jesus Luzardo has been hittable at home — opponents slug .464 against him at Citizens Bank Park.
The Yankees also own an edge against left-handed pitching, and their bullpen ranks among the best in the league. The DraftKings Network notes the moneyline market is nearly split on this game, suggesting the public is not heavily backing Philadelphia. Tellez leans New York to capitalize on the starter gap and bullpen advantage.
Dodgers-Mets Under Backed by Cooling Offenses and Locked-In Bullpens
The final play flips direction — Tellez takes the Under 9 in Dodgers-Mets. Roki Sasaki allows 2.0 home runs per nine innings, but the Mets hit just .237 at home, limiting his damage exposure. On the other side, Sean Manaea carries a 1.4 HR/9 rate, also manageable for a Dodgers offense that has cooled recently.
Both bullpens are operating in solid form, which tightens the ceiling on total runs. When two offenses are trending cold and two bullpens are sharp, unders become high-percentage plays. Tellez sees this game staying quiet, with both teams likely landing under nine combined runs.
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