US-Iran Nuclear Standoff
Interim US-Iran Deal Reaches Impasse as Tehran's Nuclear Program Remains Thorniest Issue
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A preliminary ceasefire deal between the US and Iran is moving forward, but the hardest part is still to come. AP News reported at 5:49 a.m. EDT on June 16 that the interim agreement — set for a formal signing in Switzerland on June 19 — leaves Tehran's nuclear program entirely unresolved, kicking it into a 60-day negotiation window that experts call the most dangerous phase of the 2026 crisis.
President Trump announced the "great deal" on June 14, declaring "Let the oil flow!" and framing it as an energy-market triumph. Oil prices responded immediately — Brent crude dropped to $81.73 per barrel, a three-month low, according to Bloomberg.
How a 14-Month Crisis Led to This Moment
Talks between Washington and Tehran began in April 2025 in Oman. They collapsed. On February 28, 2026, the US and Israel launched massive airstrikes on Iran, killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in the opening strikes, according to Al Jazeera. The Assembly of Experts then chose Mojtaba Khamenei — the former Supreme Leader's son — as his successor on March 9.
The conflict, often called the "100-Day War," killed between 7,468 and 10,000 people. Lebanon alone reported 3,756 dead and 1.2 million displaced, per ACLED. A ceasefire took hold on April 8 after Pakistan and Qatar mediated talks. The war also shut the Strait of Hormuz — a chokepoint for 20% of the world's oil supply — triggering a global energy crisis.
What the Interim Deal Actually Does — and Doesn't Do
The memorandum of understanding reopens the Strait of Hormuz and restores maritime trade. It releases an estimated $24 billion in frozen Iranian assets. It also sets up a $300 billion private-sector reconstruction fund aimed at rebuilding Iranian infrastructure, Reuters reported. IAEA nuclear inspectors are set to return to Iran as well.
But the deal does not touch Iran's uranium enrichment. That question — how much Iran can enrich, and to what level — goes to the 60-day negotiating table. Vice President JD Vance said "as Iran does more, they receive more," according to The Guardian. Nate Swanson of the Atlantic Council warned there is a "significant delta" between the MoU's goals and a real final deal.
Israel Furious, Iran Cautious, Congress Skeptical
Israel's reaction has been sharp. National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir said "Trump's agreement does not bind us... Israel is not a banana republic," per Zeteo. Israeli media close to Prime Minister Netanyahu called the US "treacherous" and the deal a "disaster for the free world." Netanyahu himself claims he "stood firm" against US pressure, but rivals call it a "strategic failure."
In Washington, Senator Lindsey Graham said his "skepticism is Iran itself" and insisted on "no enrichment" as the only acceptable outcome, according to WRAL. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi added another condition: any final deal must include an Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon. If Israel stays in its "buffer zone," Tehran may view the entire agreement as breached.
The 60-Day Clock Starts Now
After the June 19 signing in Switzerland, negotiators have 60 days to resolve what two decades of diplomacy could not: Iran's nuclear stockpile. The focus will be on highly enriched uranium and the terms under which IAEA inspectors operate, according to The Guardian. The 2015 JCPOA collapsed partly because it left these exact questions unanswered long-term.
The stakes are enormous. Iran insists on the Lebanese withdrawal. The US has limited patience for drawn-out verification talks, per the Atlantic Council. And the new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei — whose mother, wife, and son were reportedly killed in the February 28 strikes — brings deep personal grievance to every session. Analysts call the next 60 days a "tactical pause" that could tip back into war.
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