World Cup Knockout
Canada and Morocco Prepare for Key World Cup Round of 16 Battle in Houston
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Canada and Morocco meet in the 2026 World Cup Round of 16 on July 4 in Houston, Texas, with kickoff set for 1:00 PM CDT at NRG Stadium. Morocco enters as a clear favorite, with sportsbooks listing them at -115 to -128 on the moneyline, while Canada sits at +360 to +370 according to SportsLine.
The match is Canada's first World Cup knockout game outside their home country. Canada finished second in Group B with a 1-1-1 record before beating South Africa 1-0 in the Round of 32. Morocco finished second in Group C and knocked out the Netherlands on penalties, winning 3-2 in the shootout after a 1-1 draw through extra time, per Herald Times Online.
Morocco Arrives as Heavy Favorites With 33-Game Unbeaten Run
Morocco is ranked No. 6 in the world. Canada sits at No. 30. Morocco has not lost in 33 straight games. They controlled 70% of possession against the Netherlands in the Round of 32, showing how dominant they can be. Their head coach, Mohamed Ouahbi, replaced Walid Regragui just three months before the tournament and has kept the team on a championship track, according to Florida Today.
Goalkeeper Yassine Bounou anchors Morocco's defense. Attacking midfielder Ismael Saibari has scored in four straight games, including all three group matches and the decisive penalty against the Netherlands. Saibari is also set to join Bayern Munich after the tournament. Coach Ouahbi warned that the Canada match would be Morocco's "biggest test yet."
Canada Leans on Jonathan David and Counter-Attacking Speed
Canada's biggest weapon is their counter-attack. Jonathan David leads the team with three goals and eight shots on target. He ranks sixth in the tournament in expected goals at 3.05 xG. Canada also ranks second in the entire World Cup in expected goal differential per 60 minutes at +1.58, compared to Morocco's +0.75, per News-Press.
Captain Alphonso Davies is the key X-factor. He missed most of the group stage with a hamstring injury but played 15 minutes off the bench against South Africa. His pace on the left flank could stretch Morocco's backline. Defender Alistair Johnston said the team feels the weight of the moment, stating: "The best way to continue to grow the game is to win."
Canadian Coach Calls Morocco a 'Gory, Horrible Nightmare' to Prepare For
Canadian head coach Jesse Marsch did not hide his concern heading into the match. "Preparing for Morocco is like a gory, horrible nightmare," Marsch told reporters. "They're too good... Morocco is a team that has literally zero weaknesses." Marsch even flew to Monterrey in person to watch Morocco beat the Netherlands, according to Goerie.
Despite the anxiety, Canada is playing with confidence. Their Round of 32 win over South Africa drew 11.2 million viewers in Canada, making it the most-watched non-final soccer game in Canadian history, per MLSSoccer.com. A win over Morocco would be the biggest result in Canadian soccer history.
Houston's Domed Stadium Keeps Heat Out, Crowds Pour In
The game will be played at NRG Stadium, which holds 72,220 fans. The retractable roof will be closed, keeping the temperature at a comfortable 22°C (72°F) despite 34°C (93°F) heat outside. This is the last World Cup match hosted at the Houston venue. Fan marches are planned through central Houston from 8:00 AM to 11:00 AM CDT before kickoff, per Star News Online.
Betting experts at RotoWire project a 2-1 Morocco win, citing their superior knockout experience. However, SportsLine expert Jon Eicher is backing the Over 2.5 goals at +125 odds, pointing to Canada's counter-attacking threat as a real danger for Morocco's defense. A draw after 90 minutes is priced at +230 to +240.
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