COLA Forecast Updates
Social Security Payments Set for June 24 as 2027 COLA Forecast Predicts 3.8% Increase
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Social Security will send its second wave of June payments on June 17, going to beneficiaries with birthdays between the 11th and 20th of the month, according to Social Security Administration. The final June payments follow on June 24 for those born between the 21st and 31st.
Meanwhile, a new forecast from The Senior Citizens League puts the 2027 Cost-of-Living Adjustment at 3.8%. If that holds, the average retiree check would rise from $2,026.41 to $2,103.41 — an increase of roughly $77 per month. The official figure won't be announced until October 2026.
June Payment Dates and Who Gets Paid When
Social Security pays retirees in waves based on birth dates. The first wave went out June 3, covering people who started receiving benefits before May 1997, according to Newsweek. The June 10 wave covered birthdays from the 1st through the 10th. June 17 is next, then June 24 closes out the month.
Supplemental Security Income, or SSI, was paid on June 1. SSI recipients who also receive regular Social Security got their combined payment on June 3, per Monroe News. The July cycle begins with SSI payments on July 1, followed by the standard birthday-based schedule.
Surging Oil Prices Are Driving the 2027 COLA Higher
The 3.8% forecast is rooted in a sharp inflation spike. The Consumer Price Index hit 4.2% in May 2026 — a three-year high — according to NJ.com. Energy costs drove more than 60% of that increase. Gasoline prices are up 40.5% over the past year, and the broader energy index has climbed 23.5%.
The root cause is a conflict involving the U.S., Israel, and Iran that shut down traffic through the Strait of Hormuz in late February, according to The Motley Fool. About 20% of the world's petroleum flows through that waterway. Oil prices surged past $100 per barrel as a result, pushing inflation higher month after month.
Two Forecasters, Two Numbers — Both Higher Than Expected
The Senior Citizens League's Shannon Benton said 3.8% "might sound like a lot," but noted many seniors are already "skipping doctor's appointments due to costs," per NJ.com. Her group's 3.8% forecast would push the average monthly check to $2,103.41.
Independent analyst Mary Johnson is more aggressive. She projects a 4.7% COLA, which would bring the average check to about $2,121, according to The Street. Johnson calls current inflation the "tip of the iceberg." The official 2027 COLA will be based on inflation data from July, August, and September 2026.
A Bigger Check May Still Mean Less Buying Power
Even a 3.8% or 4.7% raise may not help seniors keep up. TSCL estimates that Social Security benefits have 13.7% less purchasing power than they did in 2016, per The Street. Medicare Part B premiums rose 9.7% in 2026 — more than three times the 2.8% COLA that year — wiping out much of the gain for many retirees, according to Kiplinger.
The bigger threat looms further out. The Social Security Trustees now project the retirement trust fund will run dry by 2032 — one year sooner than previously estimated, according to The Motley Fool. Without a fix from Congress, benefits could be cut automatically by 22% to 28%. Some 44% of older Americans rely on Social Security for all of their income, per The Senior Citizens League.
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