SKF Price Target Boosted
Pareto Securities Elevates SKF Price Target to 300 SEK, Reaffirms Buy Rating
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Pareto Securities raised its price target on SKF from 290 to 300 Swedish kronor on June 18, 2026, while keeping its "Buy" rating on the stock, according to MarketScreener. The move signals growing analyst confidence in SKF's plan to split into two separate, publicly traded companies.
The broader analyst community remains more cautious. The average price target across all analysts sits near 258 SEK — well below Pareto's 300 SEK call — with a majority of analysts rating the stock a "Hold" or "Sell," per TradingView.
SKF Plans to Split Into Two Listed Companies
SKF's board launched a plan in September 2024 to spin off its automotive division into a separate company. That new company now has a name: **SKF Vertevo**. The formal listing on Nasdaq Stockholm is targeted for Q4 2026, according to SKF Investor Relations. Shareholders would own stock in both companies after the split.
The logic behind the split is straightforward. SKF's industrial division earned an operating margin of roughly 16.6% in 2025. Its automotive arm managed just 5.1%. Separating the two lets each business focus on what drives its own growth, a strategy that worked well for Sweden's Atlas Copco when it spun off Epiroc.
Q1 2026 Results Show Resilience Despite Currency Hit
SKF reported Q1 2026 net sales of 21.87 billion SEK, down 8.7% year-over-year. The drop was driven largely by currency swings, not weak demand. The adjusted operating margin held at 13.5% — a sign of solid pricing power even in choppy conditions, according to Investing.com.
Adjusted earnings per share came in at 4.25 SEK, beating analyst estimates of 4.0 SEK. The company also booked 300 million SEK in savings from plant consolidations in just one quarter, GuruFocus reported. CFO Susanne Larsson has focused on "right-sizing" costs ahead of the split.
Plant Closure and AI Partnership Signal Strategic Shift
In April 2026, SKF announced it would close its factory in Monterrey, Mexico, cutting 390 jobs. The move reflects slower-than-expected electric vehicle adoption in the region. About 100 new roles will be added at other Mexican sites, for a net loss of 290 jobs, according to Post-Journal.
On the same month, SKF struck a deal with Sferical AI — a venture co-founded by AstraZeneca, Ericsson, and Saab — to access dedicated supercomputing power for industrial AI tasks. Pareto views the partnership as a "moat-building" move that could power new predictive maintenance products in the second half of 2026.
Bulls See Value Unlock; Bears Flag Execution Risk
Pareto argues the market is undervaluing what SKF's two parts are worth separately. Their 300 SEK target is the most optimistic on the Street. Lead analyst Forbes Goldman points to "confidence in the company's ability to deliver on earnings expectations" as a key reason for the raised target, per MarketBeat.
Skeptics counter that the spin-off is expensive and disruptive in the short term. A 0.5 billion SEK restructuring charge is expected in Q2 2026 alone. Morningstar flags "near-term separation pains," while bearish analysts also point to macro risks — including Middle East instability — as potential drags on global bearing demand, according to Simply Wall St.
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