Trump's Iran Deal Push
President Trump Raises Expectations for Closing Iran War Deal
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President Trump is raising expectations that a deal to end the three-month-old US-Iran war could be signed this weekend, according to AP. The announcement sent the Dow Jones jumping 929 points and the S&P 500 up 1.8%, as markets bet on an end to a conflict that has rattled global energy supplies since late February 2026.
Brent crude fell $2.94 to $87.44 a barrel on the news, according to CBS. But Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei pushed back hard, stating that "no one can claim that the signing of an agreement is imminent."
How a Morning Threat Became an Evening Deal Claim
The diplomatic whiplash came fast. On the morning of June 11, Trump went on Fox News and threatened to hit Iran "VERY HARD TONIGHT" and seize Kharg Island, Iran's main oil export terminal. By that evening, he reversed course entirely — canceling the strikes and claiming Iran had "approved" a draft agreement, according to Axios.
Diplomatic observers called the back-and-forth "diplomatic whiplash." A diplomat briefed on the talks told The Guardian there is still a "50% chance" the deal collapses due to "potential spoilers" on both sides.
Iran's Side: No Deal Exists Until We Say So
Iran's lead negotiator, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, says his country "will not compromise on its red lines," according to The Guardian. Iranian state-linked media suggest Tehran is denying a deal publicly to avoid looking weak under US military pressure.
Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei is reportedly reviewing the "agreed-upon text" but has not signed off, according to Arms Control Association. The gap between Trump's weekend-deal optimism and Iran's public denials remains wide.
A War Built on Ultimatums, Blockades, and Broken Deadlines
The conflict traces back to April 2025, when Trump gave Iran a 60-day deadline to dismantle its nuclear program. When that deadline expired in June 2025, Israel launched pre-emptive strikes. A full US-Iran war broke out in February 2026 after a second round of Geneva negotiations collapsed, according to Arms Control Association.
The war has been costly. A US strike on June 10 hit a reservoir in Iran's Bemani district, cutting water to 20,000 civilians and drawing war crime allegations, The Guardian reported. Trump also asked Congress for an additional $200 billion to fund the military effort, according to AP.
Weekend Signing, G7 Summit, and Midterm Politics
Vice President JD Vance has been dispatched to Europe to lead a potential signing ceremony this weekend, according to Gulf News. The war is also set to dominate next week's G7 summit in Évian-les-Bains, France, where Trump has clashed with leaders Keir Starmer, Emmanuel Macron, and Friedrich Merz over their lack of support for the conflict.
Analysts say the timing is no accident. Rep. Michael McCaul (R-Texas) warned that Iran may try to "drag this out" to influence November's midterm elections, according to AP. The war is broadly unpopular with Americans, and inflation has hit a three-year high during the conflict.
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