US Prods Iran
Vance Meets Top Iranian Officials as US Seeks to Encourage Iran's Policy Shift
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U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance met face-to-face with top Iranian officials on Saturday at a Swiss mountain resort near Lake Lucerne, pressing to formalize a fragile ceasefire deal after a 108-day war that killed thousands and rattled global energy markets. The high-stakes talks, held at the Bürgenstock Resort in Obbuergen, Switzerland, aim to build out a 14-point Memorandum of Understanding signed just days earlier on June 17 — giving both sides a 60-day window to reach a full settlement, according to AP News.
Vance struck an optimistic tone, asking: "Can we turn over a new leaf? Can we change relations in the Middle East permanently, or do we go back to doing things the old way?" But the talks face real pressure. President Trump warned on social media that the U.S. would hit Iran "very hard again, only harder" if Iranian-backed proxies keep fighting, according to AP News.
A 108-Day War That Changed the Middle East
The diplomacy follows a devastating conflict that began on February 28, 2026, when U.S. and Israeli forces launched nearly 900 strikes on Iranian military and nuclear sites under "Operation Epic Fury." Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed in the first wave of strikes, according to CBS News. The war left an estimated 30,000 civilians dead and displaced over 3.2 million people.
Iran retaliated by closing the Strait of Hormuz in early March, spiking Brent Crude oil to over $120 per barrel and driving U.S. inflation to 4.2%, according to Reuters. Gulf states are now facing a projected 2.6% GDP decline this year due to choked oil exports. Prices have since eased to around $80 per barrel as the ceasefire took hold.
Switzerland Talks Hang by a Thread
The path to Saturday's meeting was rocky. Formal talks were canceled on June 19 after fighting flared in Lebanon between Israel and Hezbollah. They resumed only after mediators — including Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Army Chief Asim Munir — helped bring both sides back to the table. Sharif credited Trump's "visionary and very dynamic leadership" for the breakthrough, according to The Guardian.
Iran's delegation includes Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Parliamentary Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf. But tensions ran hot inside the room. Iranian negotiators reportedly walked out of one session to protest Trump's combative social media posts, according to The Jerusalem Post. Israel, meanwhile, declared it is "not bound" by the U.S.-Iran ceasefire and kept striking Hezbollah targets in Lebanon.
$12 Billion Unfrozen as a 'Test of Trust'
As a confidence-building measure, the U.S. reportedly released $12 billion of Iran's frozen assets at the start of talks. Iran could receive a total of $24 billion in stages over the 60-day negotiating window if talks progress, according to Firstpost. The funds are meant to ease Iran's crippling economic crisis and give its government a reason to stay at the table.
Iran's nuclear concessions — including diluting its stockpile of highly enriched uranium — are the core ask from the U.S. side. About 20% of the world's oil and 19% of global LNG passes through the Strait of Hormuz, according to the World Economic Forum. Getting that chokepoint fully open again is the most urgent economic goal for both sides.
Experts Warn the Deal Could Still Fall Apart
Analysts are cautious. Alex Vatanka of the Middle East Institute warns of a "lack of a coherent political endgame," saying military pressure alone risks trapping the region in a cycle of "ceasefires, strikes, and retaliation," according to Al-Monitor. Israel's refusal to honor the ceasefire in Lebanon is the most immediate threat to the talks.
Senator Lindsey Graham raised the stakes further, saying Trump is prepared to "take the Strait of Hormuz over by force" and charge a toll for all ships passing through if the deal collapses, according to The Guardian. For Vance, a successful deal would boost his profile as a potential 2028 presidential candidate. For Iran's new leadership under Mojtaba Khamenei and President Masoud Pezeshkian, it may be the only way to save a battered economy.
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