Armenia's Direction Defined
Armenian Election Determines Country's Future Amid Tensions Over Russian Ties and European Shift
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Armenians cast ballots on June 7 in a parliamentary election that has become a defining choice between Russia and Europe. Turnout reached nearly 59%, or about 1.47 million voters, according to Central Election Commission data. The result will determine whether Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan can push Armenia further West — and how far Moscow will go to stop him.
The stakes are high. Russia has already warned it may cut off natural gas and rough diamond supplies if Armenia keeps moving toward the EU, according to The Armenian Weekly. Right now, Russia sells Armenia gas at $177.50 per 1,000 cubic meters — far below the European market price of over $600.
How Armenia Broke with Russia After Karabakh
Armenia's westward turn started with a disaster. In 2023, Azerbaijan seized Nagorno-Karabakh in a lightning offensive, displacing over 100,000 ethnic Armenians. Russian peacekeepers stood by and did nothing. Pashinyan responded by suspending Armenia's membership in the CSTO — the Russian-led military alliance — citing its failure to protect Armenian territory, according to Ifri.
Since then, Pashinyan has deepened ties with the EU and the US while keeping Russia at arm's length. He rejected a Russian demand for a referendum on staying in the Eurasian Economic Union, calling it
, In April, President Putin warned Pashinyan directly that European gas would cost more than three times as much as Russian supplies. Pashinyan called the tensions a
Opposition Campaigns from House Arrest and Exile
The two main challengers are the Strong Armenia bloc and the Armenia Alliance. Strong Armenia is led by Samvel Karapetyan, a Russian-Armenian billionaire who founded the party in December 2025 after the Karabakh loss. In February 2026, he was placed under house arrest on corruption and vote-buying charges, according to Azatutyun. He campaigned anyway, telling supporters,
The Armenia Alliance is led by former President Robert Kocharyan. He told voters he hopes the election will
Arrest Warrants and Vote-Buying Cloud Election Day
The vote was marred by legal actions on both sides. By election day, authorities had launched 103 criminal cases, detained 194 people, and opened 209 criminal proceedings related to election violations, according to JAMnews. On June 6 alone, the Investigative Committee issued six arrest warrants against Strong Armenia members for alleged vote-buying.
International observers from the McCain Institute described a
What a Pashinyan Win Means for Russia and the Region
Pashinyan's Civil Contract party led pre-election polling at around 32%, according to Euractiv. If he wins a majority, experts say Armenia will likely push toward a formal peace deal with Azerbaijan and begin deeper EU integration. Russia has signaled it will retaliate economically — possibly banning Armenian agricultural exports or cutting gas supplies.
Still, Pashinyan has been cautious. He said Armenia is
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