Historic College Football Matchup
No. 1 Ohio State Faces Ball State in Historic First Meeting
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No. 1 Ohio State faces Ball State on September 5 at Ohio Stadium in Columbus—a first-ever matchup that looks lopsided on paper. Sports Illustrated projects the Buckeyes to win 60–0, with Ohio State favored by 50.5 points. Under coach Ryan Day, Ohio State is 6–0 against Mid-American Conference teams, winning by an average of 51.5 points per game.
Ball State arrives in a weakened state. The Cardinals must replace 8 starters from their 2025 defense and haven't covered against a Big Ten opponent since 2021. FanDuel and DraftKings have set the total at 56.5 points, implying Ohio State will score 54 points and Ball State just 3.
Ryan Day's Dominance Over MAC Conference Foes
Ohio State has steamrolled every Mid-American Conference opponent under Ryan Day. The Buckeyes sit at 6–0 in those matchups, averaging a 51.5-point margin of victory. This game continues that trend. AP Sports noted that Ball State's thin front seven features just one preseason All-MAC defender, a stark mismatch against Ohio State's elite offensive line.
Ball State's Defense Stripped of Eight Starters
The Cardinals enter the season rebuilding their defensive unit. Reporter News highlighted that Ball State must replace 8 starters from 2025's playoff team, creating major questions about whether quarterback Keldric Luster can get early stops. Their recent record against Big Ten programs is bleak—no ATS cover since a 2021 upset of Penn State.
Computer Models Predict a Blowout Victory
Sports Illustrated's SP+ model forecasts Ohio State 60, Ball State 0, with the Buckeyes assigned a 100% win probability. numberFire is only slightly more generous to Ball State, giving Ohio State a 99.3% chance to win. Senior analyst Bill Landis predicts a 51–7 Ohio State victory, reasoning that Ball State's depleted front seven cannot withstand the Buckeyes' new offensive scheme under coordinator Arthur Smith.
A Live Tune-Up Before Ohio State's Texas Test
Scarlet and Game frames Ball State as Ohio State's tune-up before a critical Week 2 matchup against No. 5 Texas in Austin. For the Buckeyes, Ball State offers a chance to install new offensive plays and rotate backup quarterbacks into live action. For Ball State, the 50.5-point spread offers little room for error—any competitive showing would rank as a moral victory against college football's top-ranked team.
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