Ibex 35 Surges
Ibex 35 Opens Higher, Surpassing 18,300 Points with Oil at $95
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Spain's main stock index, the Ibex 35, opened Friday morning with a 0.31% gain, climbing to 18,332.2 points — breaking past the 18,300 threshold for the first time. The move came as Brent crude stabilized near $95.2 per barrel, easing fears of a full energy crisis tied to the conflict in the Middle East, according to Europa Press and Bolsamania.
Investors are betting that a peace deal between the US and Iran could be near. That hope is pushing markets higher — even as oil prices remain elevated and some analysts urge caution.
A Volatile Week Driven by Middle East Peace Hopes
The week began badly. On Monday, June 1, the Ibex 35 fell 1% after US-Iran talks collapsed and oil surged 7% toward $98 a barrel. Tehran threatened to shut the Strait of Hormuz — the key waterway for global oil — sending markets into a spin, according to Morningstar.
By Thursday, the mood had shifted. President Trump said a peace deal could come "this weekend." A ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel, brokered in Washington, also helped cool oil prices to around $94.78. The Ibex closed Thursday up 0.55% at 18,276 points, setting up Friday's push above 18,300, TradingView reported.
Inditex and Amadeus Power the Index Higher
The market's climb wasn't just about geopolitics. Spanish corporate giants delivered strong results. Inditex posted record quarterly sales of €8.75 billion. Amadeus launched a €150 million share buyback program. Both stocks acted as engines for the broader index, according to Europa Press.
On Friday morning, the top gainers included Cellnex (+1.4%), Inditex (+1.1%), Acciona Energía (+1%), and Iberdrola (+0.9%). The only notable losers were ArcelorMittal (-2.5%) and Indra (-0.9%), Bolsamania noted.
Analysts Warn Peace Deal Is Not Yet a Sure Thing
Not everyone is celebrating. Ian Lyngen of BMO Capital Markets put it plainly: "The market seems comfortable assuming an agreement is imminent, but risks persist if negotiations fail." Renta 4 analysts went further, warning that Brent crude could still hit $130 per barrel if the Strait of Hormuz stays blocked.
ActivTrades analysts noted that 16,000 points remains a "key support" level for the Ibex, meaning the index could fall sharply if peace talks break down. The Strait of Hormuz remains closed, and Business Insider reported that Iran may be dragging out talks for its own benefit, regardless of Trump's optimism.
Lower Oil Prices Could Boost Spain's Summer Economy
If oil stays near $95 or falls further, Spain stands to benefit. Cheaper fuel lowers travel costs — good news for a tourism sector that added 66,000 jobs in May alone. Spain now has 22.3 million active workers, and monthly unemployment dropped by 36,323 people in May, according to Spain's Ministry of Labor.
The government also signaled confidence in long-term stability on Friday. The official state gazette published the order for the 2027 General State Budgets, showing Madrid is pushing ahead with fiscal planning despite global uncertainty, Europa Press reported.
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