Talks Amid Strait Closure
US-Iran Talks Set for Sunday in Switzerland as Tehran Closes Strait Amid Lebanon Fighting
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Iran shut down the Strait of Hormuz again on June 20, just three days after signing a ceasefire deal with the United States. Tehran's military command said the re-closure was a response to US and Israeli "bad faith," citing ongoing Israeli strikes in Lebanon that killed 47 people on June 19 alone, according to AP.
The move throws a fragile peace framework into immediate crisis. Technical talks were set to begin Sunday in Switzerland, where US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner were already on the ground. But Iranian officials arrived with what AP described as "low expectations."
A Three-Day Peace That Quickly Fell Apart
President Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian signed the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding on June 17. The deal was brokered by Pakistan, with support from Qatar and Turkey. It called for an immediate halt to fighting on "all fronts, including in Lebanon," according to Middle East Eye. The Strait of Hormuz briefly reopened. Twenty-five ships passed through on June 18.
That recovery lasted less than 48 hours. Heavy fighting resumed in Lebanon on June 19. Hezbollah killed four Israeli soldiers. Israel struck back, killing 47 Lebanese civilians and fighters. By the evening of June 19, Switzerland talks were postponed and VP JD Vance canceled his flight, The Guardian reported. By 10:48 AM on June 20, Iran had officially re-closed the Strait.
Israel Says It Is Not Bound by the US-Iran Deal
A core problem is that Israel never signed the MoU. Prime Minister Netanyahu has publicly stated that Israel is "not a signatory" to the agreement and is not bound by its terms — especially in Lebanon, according to Just the News. Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi says negotiations cannot move forward without a full ceasefire on all fronts.
Geopolitical analyst Bilal Bassiouni says Iran is using the Strait closure to "force the US to restrain Israel." Accepting continued Israeli strikes in Lebanon, he argues, would strip Tehran of its main negotiating leverage, according to SWI swissinfo.ch.
Oil Prices and Global Markets Brace for Another Spike
Brent crude had dropped to $83 per barrel when the MoU was signed on June 17. Traders expected further relief as the Strait reopened. Now markets face a fresh shock. The Strait carries roughly 20% of global oil and LNG shipments. Since the war began on February 28, global supply losses have exceeded 1 billion barrels, according to The Guardian.
Energy analyst Daniel Yergin warns that the repeated closures have "permanently reconfigured" LNG markets, leaving Europe more vulnerable regardless of whether a deal holds. The Pentagon has also asked Congress for an extra $80 billion to cover war costs, The Wall Street Journal reported.
Trump Threatens Bombs; Americans Sour on the War
Trump has warned that if Iran misbehaves, the US will go "right back to dropping bombs right smack in the middle of their head," according to Military Times. VP Vance calls the deal "performance-based" — a mechanism to "dial up and dial down" US pressure. A $300 billion reconstruction fund for Iran was reportedly dangled as an incentive, but it is now in jeopardy, AP reported.
At home, only 34% of Americans approve of the military campaign against Iran, and 58% now say the war was a mistake, according to Gallup polling cited by AP. With the 2026 midterms approaching and gas prices still high, the political cost for Republicans is growing by the day.
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