Bitcoin Defies Bearish Forecasts
Analyst Benjamin Cowen Admits Bearish Forecast Was Wrong As Bitcoin Surges Past $87,000
Anonymous
Key Points
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Cowen said he had expected Bitcoin to fall toward a deep October cycle low near $44,000, based on comparisons with the 2014, 2018 and 2022 cycles.
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Cowen cited a change in Bitcoin’s relationship with the dollar: in May, a similar dollar double-bottom coincided with a Bitcoin local top, but this time Bitcoin rose alongside the dollar. He said, “Something clearly changed.”
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At the $82,800 support test, the daily-chart indicators included an RSI of 47.8, a MACD death cross signaling fading momentum, and price near the lower Bollinger Band at $83,178.95; the 50-day EMA was at $82,445.42.
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The pullback also extended to XRP, Solana and Zcash, which Bloomberg reported were among the smaller cryptocurrencies that declined alongside Bitcoin and Ether.
Bitcoin analyst Benjamin Cowen admitted his bearish forecast was wrong, as the cryptocurrency surged to an eight-month high above $87,000 despite rising Treasury yields and a stronger U.S. dollar. Bitcoin.com reported that Cowen had expected Bitcoin to fall toward $44,000 based on past market cycles, but the rally outpaced comparable moves in 2018 and 2022. The price later retreated to around $82,800 as KuCoin noted that the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield hit its highest level since 2007, dragging down risk assets including Bitcoin, Ether, and XRP.
Cowen Rethinks His Macro Thesis on Bitcoin
Cowen acknowledged that his assumption about rate hikes pressuring Bitcoin was flawed. He pointed out that past tightening cycles from 2014, 2018, and 2022 did not show an immediate selloff pattern. His original forecast predicted a drop to a "deep October cycle low near $44,000," but Bitcoin's actual movement told a different story, forcing him to reconsider his macro framework.
The analyst cited a crucial shift in Bitcoin's relationship with the U.S. dollar. In May, when the dollar hit a similar double-bottom, Bitcoin formed a local top. This time, Bitcoin rose alongside a strengthening dollar. "Something clearly changed," Cowen said, highlighting how the typical inverse relationship between the two assets no longer holds.
Treasury Yields Trigger a Sharp Crypto Pullback
The rally cooled sharply as KuCoin reported the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield reached its 2007 high, the strongest reading in 17 years. RTTNews noted that a massive bond market selloff sent Bitcoin below $83,000 within 24 hours. The spike in borrowing costs spooked investors, pulling money from riskier assets like cryptocurrencies toward safer bonds.
Smaller cryptocurrencies took the hardest hit. Bloomberg reported that XRP, Solana, and Zcash all declined alongside Bitcoin and Ether. XRP slipped toward $1.46, while Solana and other altcoins saw similar pressure from the broader risk-off sentiment sweeping through digital asset markets.
Technical Support Tested as Momentum Fades
Bitcoin.com reported that Bitcoin's retreat from $87,374 to $82,800 put key technical support levels in focus. The daily-chart RSI stood at 47.8, while a MACD death cross signaled weakening momentum. Price hovered near the lower Bollinger Band at $83,178.95, with the 50-day moving average providing support at $82,445.42.
Traders are watching the $82,800–$83,000 zone closely. Technical readings suggest the nearby moving-average support is holding, but fading momentum leaves the door open for another pullback before any renewed advance. A break below these levels could test deeper support, while a bounce could set up a move back toward recent highs.
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