Global Growth Slowdown Warning
World Bank Warns Global Growth Slows to Pandemic Low Amid War, Inflation
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The World Bank cut its global growth forecast to 2.5% for 2026, the lowest since the Covid pandemic, warning that the war between the U.S., Israel, and Iran is dragging down economies worldwide The Guardian. The bank slashed forecasts for two-thirds of all countries in its semi-annual Global Economic Prospects report, released June 11.
The primary driver is the closure of the Strait of Hormuz — a vital shipping lane for roughly 20% of global oil and gas — following Iranian mining operations after U.S. and Israeli strikes in February The New York Times. Brent crude is now expected to average $94 per barrel in 2026, a 36% jump from 2025 levels Reuters.
How the Iran War Triggered a Growth Collapse
The conflict began February 28, when the U.S. and Israel struck Iranian nuclear and military sites The New York Times. Iran responded by mining the Strait of Hormuz. That choked global oil exports from roughly 16 million down to about 4 million barrels per day. A fragile ceasefire took hold April 8, but the Strait remains heavily restricted. On June 10, President Trump threatened to strike Iran "very hard" if a peace deal is not signed, sending oil prices up $2 per barrel overnight Reuters.
The World Bank now sees a worst-case scenario where global growth crashes to just 1.3% if fighting escalates again The Guardian. Chief Economist Indermit Gill put it bluntly, warning that outside of Asia, "the developing world is becoming a development-free zone." IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva added that recovery is only possible if the conflict ends "in the next weeks" — and will be "worse if it drags through the summer" Seattle Times.
Inflation Climbs as Prices Surge Across Commodities
Global inflation is forecast to hit 4% in 2026, up sharply from 3.3% in 2025 The Guardian. Energy costs are the main culprit, but the pain goes further. Fertilizer prices have jumped 38% due to disruptions in Persian Gulf export routes. Urea — a key crop nutrient — is up 60% El Paso Inc. The World Food Programme warns that if conditions persist, around 45 million people could be pushed into acute food insecurity.
Unlike in 2020, central banks have little room to respond. High debt levels and sticky inflation mean interest rate cuts are off the table for most governments. That leaves developing nations with almost no cushion Yahoo Finance.
A Lost Decade for the Developing World
The World Bank warned that developing countries — excluding China and India — will end the 2020s no closer to rich-world living standards than they started The Guardian. Since 2014, average income growth in those nations has run half a percentage point below advanced economies each year. The pandemic widened that gap. This war is sealing it.
India remains the bright spot, growing at 6.6% — the fastest of any major economy. China is at 4.2%, down from 5% in 2025. But for the rest of the developing world, aggregate growth sits at just 3.8%, more than 1 percentage point below the 2010s average Newsday. World Bank President Ajay Banga said the bank is mobilizing between $80 billion and $100 billion over the next 15 months to help the hardest-hit countries — more than the $70 billion it deployed during the entire Covid-19 pandemic Seattle Times.
Markets and Trade Face Permanent Reshaping
Analysts at Brookings describe the situation as a "race between temporary buffers and the duration of the impasse" — meaning global oil inventories are running down and every week the Strait stays closed makes things worse. European and UK economies are already seeing purchasing managers' indexes — a key measure of business activity — fall into contraction territory Yahoo Finance.
The crisis is also speeding up a long-term shift in how countries trade. Nations are moving supply chains away from conflict-prone regions, a trend analysts call "friend-shoring." The result is likely to be permanently higher prices for everyday consumer goods. The World Bank's Gill warned this structural change means the 2020s will fail to reduce extreme poverty in Africa and Latin America "barring a miracle" The Guardian.
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