Severe El Niño Risks
Strengthening El Niño Raises Coastal Flood and Monsoon Risks Worldwide
Anonymous
El Niño is strengthening as unusually warm Pacific water shifts eastward, and forecasters say it could become one of the strongest events recorded, though “super El Niño” is not an official scientific category; effects may extend into 2027. A Kelvin wave moving along the Americas could raise parts of California’s sea level by up to 30 centimetres for months, compounding risks from tides, storms and waves. In the San Francisco Bay Area, a coastal flood advisory warns that high tides about 1.2 feet above normal could flood low-lying roads, trails and beaches even without rain. Scientists warn that El Niño could also persist into 2027, worsening marine heatwaves and reducing coastal upwelling near India, with potential harm to ecosystems, fisheries and the summer monsoon. More broadly, its uneven regional effects can alter rainfall and storm patterns, contributing to heat, drought, flooding, crop losses and pressure on food and water supplies, electricity systems and economies; impacts will vary by region and may compound risks from long-term warming.
Key Points
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NOAA estimates that Kelvin waves typically raise sea level by about 15 centimetres, while satellite measurements recorded seas near Peru more than 15 centimetres above their long-term average in May 2026.
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For the San Francisco Bay Area, the coastal flood advisory was scheduled to run through at least Thursday at 5 p.m., with officials identifying the Embarcadero and parts of Marin as places to watch; it could be extended into Friday.
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INCOIS scientists put the likelihood of El Niño conditions persisting until at least April 2027 at 80% to 100%; they said marine heatwaves already affected large areas of the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal, with the affected area expanding in 2026 compared with 2025.
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NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center forecasts a greater than 90% chance of a very strong El Niño this fall and winter, while the WMO says it could reach that category before peaking near year’s end.
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