Canada's Population Shrinks
Canada's population declines for third consecutive quarter amid lower immigration and fewer births.
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Key Points
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Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) said it is “committed to reducing Canada’s temporary population to less than five per cent of the total population by the end of 2027,” and set “Targets for new temporary resident arrivals” at 385,000 in 2026 and 370,000 in 2027 and 2028 (figures described as new temporary worker and student arrivals).
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Statistics Canada said its March 2026 estimate places Canada’s population “well below the levels observed in the fourth quarters of 2023 and 2024.”
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StatsCan reported a recent mid-cycle drop as well: “Between Oct. 1, 2025, and Jan. 1, 2026, Canada’s population decreased by 103,504 people.”
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CBC noted the new early-2026 figures follow “months after the agency reported an overall decline in the population for last year.”
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Economist Mikal Skuterud said the immigration shift has changed the direction of per-capita growth, adding: “As a result of the Liberal government’s U-turn on immigration policy, GDP per-capita growth rates have turned from negative … and now it’s flat or slightly positive.”
Canada's population shrank by 55,025 people in the first quarter of 2026, falling to 41,417,056 by April 1, according to Statistics Canada. That is a 0.1% drop — the third straight quarterly decline — driven largely by a sharp pullback in temporary residents and a historic first: deaths now outnumber births.
The Globe and Mail reported the decline reflects the federal government's deliberate push to cut Canada's temporary population. Permanent immigration also fell about 20% year over year, to 83,149 arrivals in the quarter. The country's population now sits "well below the levels observed in the fourth quarters of 2023 and 2024," Statistics Canada said.
Temporary Residents Leave in Record Numbers
The single biggest driver of the drop was a net loss of more than 117,000 non-permanent residents — international students and temporary workers — in just three months, according to Statistics Canada. That figure is preliminary and will be revised in September. On top of that, 20,140 people emigrated out of Canada during the quarter.
The federal government set this in motion. Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada said it is "committed to reducing Canada's temporary population to less than five per cent of the total population by the end of 2027." Right now, temporary residents make up roughly 7% of the population. New temporary resident arrival targets are set at 385,000 for 2026 and 370,000 for both 2027 and 2028 — down from an estimated 673,000 in 2025, according to Investment Executive.
Births No Longer Outpace Deaths for First Time in Decades
For the first time in roughly 75 years, Canada recorded more deaths than births in a quarter. There were 90,173 births and 90,328 deaths between January and March 2026 — a gap of just 155, according to Statistics Canada. Experts call this "natural increase" turning negative, and it marks a fundamental shift in Canada's demographic makeup.
An aging population and declining birth rates are behind the shift. CBC News noted the Q1 figures came months after Statistics Canada reported an overall population decline for all of 2025. The back-to-back quarters of negative natural growth suggest the trend is not a one-off blip but a structural change.
Fewer People, But a Better Deal Per Canadian?
A smaller population sounds bad — and for total economic output, it can be. Economist Stéfane Marion of National Bank of Canada pointed to the population drop as a key factor in weaker overall GDP. But the picture looks different on a per-person basis. While total GDP dipped 0.1% annualized in Q1, GDP per capita actually grew roughly 0.9%, according to Investment Executive.
University of Waterloo economist Mikal Skuterud put it plainly. "As a result of the Liberal government's U-turn on immigration policy, GDP per-capita growth rates have turned from negative ... and now it's flat or slightly positive," he told CBC News. In other words, the average Canadian may be getting a slightly bigger slice of a slightly smaller pie.
Housing Relief Ahead, but Labor Shortages Loom
Because temporary residents are primarily renters, their departure is already easing pressure on tight urban rental markets, analysts say. But the relief comes with a trade-off. Industries that leaned heavily on temporary workers — agriculture, hospitality, and low-wage retail — now face steeper labor shortages. Employers in those sectors are being pushed toward higher wages or automation.
International students face the steepest cuts. New student arrivals are capped at 155,000 for 2026 — a 49% drop from 2025 levels, according to The Globe and Mail. As the government's 2027 deadline approaches, political pressure is building to either ease the caps or create more paths for existing temporary residents to become permanent. Statistics Canada will release updated non-permanent resident figures in September, which could shift the full picture.
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