Paxton's Legal, Political Woes
Cornyn Stands by Criticisms of Paxton After Primary Loss, Citing Unfitness to Serve
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Texas Sen. John Cornyn lost his Senate seat Tuesday to Attorney General Ken Paxton by nearly 30 percentage points — and he is not backing down from his criticism. Cornyn called Paxton "flawed, self-centered and shameless" even while conceding the race was won "fair and square" newschannel9.com.
Paxton, who has faced felony fraud charges and was impeached by his own party in 2023, crushed the four-term incumbent 63.8% to 36.2% wgme.com. He now faces Democrat James Talarico in November — a race that could decide control of the entire U.S. Senate.
Trump's Late Endorsement Sealed Cornyn's Fate
On May 19, just one week before the runoff, President Trump endorsed Paxton on Truth Social, calling him a "true MAGA Warrior." Analysts widely credit the move with swinging the race. Pro-Cornyn groups had spent $71 million — the most ever for a non-presidential primary incumbent — and were outspending Paxton nearly 4-to-1 komonews.com.
The roots of Cornyn's trouble go back to 2022. After he helped pass a bipartisan gun safety bill following the Uvalde school shooting, he was booed at the Texas GOP convention and branded a RINO — Republican In Name Only foxsanantonio.com. The "establishment" brand became a liability he could never shake.
Paxton Won Despite a Decade of Scandal
Paxton has been under legal fire since 2015, when he was indicted on felony securities fraud charges. Those charges dragged on for a decade and were only settled in early 2025 wchstv.com. In 2023, the GOP-led Texas House impeached him on 20 counts — including bribery and dereliction of duty — tied to his dealings with donor Nate Paul. The Texas Senate acquitted him.
None of it stopped voters. Paxton declared victory on election night, saying: "Tonight, we just sent a Texas-sized message to Washington... Change was on the ballot and change won" wgxa.tv. Cornyn did not dispute the result but stood firm: he said Paxton remains an "embarrassment" to the office.
Texas Senate Seat Suddenly Looks Like a Tossup
The first post-runoff poll shows Democrat James Talarico leading Paxton 47% to 44% among likely voters turnto10.com. Talarico leads independents by 25 points and moderates by 49 points. Election forecasters at Sabato's Crystal Ball moved the race from "Likely Republican" to "Leans Republican" — a significant downgrade for the GOP.
Republicans hold a slim Senate majority. A Texas loss would likely hand control to Democrats. Internal GOP estimates suggest the party may need to spend over $250 million defending the seat — money originally planned for offense in Georgia and Michigan bakersfieldnow.com.
Talarico Frames the Race as People vs. Corruption
Talarico launched a "The People vs. Ken Paxton" tour in Houston the day after the runoff. He is not running a standard left-versus-right campaign. Instead, he is targeting Paxton's legal record directly, calling him "the most corrupt politician in America" who has "failed the character test" abcstlouis.com.
National Democrats see Paxton as a rare opportunity. The last time Texas sent a Democrat to the U.S. Senate was 1988. With Paxton's baggage and a competitive poll this early, party strategists believe the seat is now genuinely in play for the first time in nearly 40 years mynews4.com.
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