Paxton's Political Baggage
Texas AG Ken Paxton's Scandals Complicate U.S. Senate Bid After Primary Victory
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Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton won the Republican primary in May, but his long list of scandals may cost him the U.S. Senate seat being vacated by John Cornyn. Paxton has faced criminal fraud charges, was impeached by fellow Republicans in the state legislature, and has been accused of infidelity — all while serving as Texas's top law enforcement official, according to KUTV and Idaho News.
His Democratic opponent, James Talarico, is now hoping that Paxton's baggage opens a door that has been firmly shut for Democrats in Texas. No Democrat has won a statewide race in Texas since 1994.
Paxton's Three Big Scandals Still Haunt Him
Paxton has carried serious legal and ethical problems for years. He was charged with securities fraud — a felony — back in 2015, and that case dragged on for nearly a decade. In 2023, the Republican-controlled Texas House impeached him on charges that included bribery and abuse of office. The Texas Senate ultimately acquitted him, but the trial put his conduct under a national spotlight, according to KOMO News.
On top of the legal troubles, Paxton was also accused of having an extramarital affair with a woman whose donor boyfriend later received favors from the attorney general's office. These overlapping controversies give Democrats an unusually large target in a state that has long been reliably Republican, News 4 San Antonio reported.
Talarico Sees a Narrow but Real Opening
Democrat James Talarico is running to fill Cornyn's seat and believes Paxton's record makes the race more competitive than usual. Pre-primary polling showed Cornyn — who did not run again — performing better than Talarico in a general election matchup. That suggests Paxton is a weaker Republican candidate, though Texas still leans heavily red, according to WWMT.
Talarico's path to victory remains steep. Texas has not sent a Democrat to statewide office in over 30 years. Even with a damaged opponent, he would need a dramatic shift in a state where Republicans routinely win by double digits.
Political Analyst Calls Paxton's Baggage a Real Liability
Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics and author of the "Crystal Ball" political newsletter, says Paxton's history is a genuine drag on his campaign. Sabato believes the scandals could give Talarico a better shot at pulling off the first Democratic statewide win in Texas in three decades, according to WGME.
Still, Sabato and other analysts stop short of calling the race a toss-up. Texas remains a challenging map for Democrats. But Paxton's unique combination of a felony charge, an impeachment, and a personal scandal makes this Senate race one to watch, News Channel 9 reported.
Why Texas Democrats Have Struggled Since 1994
Democrats last won a Texas statewide race in 1994. Since then, the state has shifted steadily rightward, driven by strong Republican turnout in rural areas and suburbs. High-profile Democratic candidates like Beto O'Rourke tried and failed twice — losing a Senate race to Ted Cruz by less than 3 points in 2018 and losing the governor's race by 11 points in 2022, according to Fox 23.
The 2026 Senate race could test whether Paxton's personal and legal troubles are enough to shift that math. If Talarico can consolidate Democratic voters while peeling off moderate Republicans put off by Paxton's record, the race becomes closer. But "closer" in Texas still means climbing a very steep hill, News 3 Las Vegas noted.
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