US Online Holiday Sales Expected to Reach Record $275.1 Billion

Adobe forecasts that U.S. online holiday sales will reach a record $275.1 billion from Nov. 1 through Dec. 31, 2026, up 6.7% from 2025. The five-day Cyber Week is expected to bring in $47.5 billion, with Cyber Monday leading at $15.1 billion and Black Friday growing faster year over year, supported by early discounts. October online spending is also projected to rise 8% to $95.8 billion as Prime Big Deal Days and other promotions pull purchases earlier into the season. Mobile shopping is expected to account for a record share of Cyber Week spending, while Adobe says AI tools and social influencers are increasingly shaping how consumers find products and deals. The upbeat sales outlook contrasts with declining consumer sentiment, though Adobe attributes expected demand to shoppers seeking value and spreading purchases across the promotional season.
Adobe says shoppers are expected to use discounts of up to 30% to stock up on everyday essentials, including personal-hygiene and household-cleaning products.
Buy Now, Pay Later is expected to remain part of the shopping journey, particularly when consumers are ready to complete a purchase.
Including October, online spending over the three-month period could exceed $370 billion; Adobe also projects that online purchases will represent one in four holiday retail dollars, compared with one in five in 2025.
Adobe says its forecast draws on more than 1 trillion visits to U.S. retail sites, covering 100 million products and 18 categories.
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