Gold Prices Rebound
Gold Prices Rebound Sharply as Cooler U.S. Inflation Data Boosts Market Optimism
Anonymous
Key Points
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At the September 30 close, SJC gold bars were listed at 141.1 million–144.1 million VND per ounce, while SJC and PNJ gold rings were around 138.5 million–141.5 million VND per ounce.
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August headline PCE inflation rose 0.3% month over month and 3.4% year over year, both below economists’ forecasts; personal spending increased 0.9%, exceeding the 0.8% forecast, while personal income rose 0.2%.
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The US 30-year Treasury yield climbed above 5.61%, its highest level since 2002. The technical analysis put immediate gold support near $4,165 and resistance near the 100-day moving average at $4,295.
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CME FedWatch data cited in Tuesday’s coverage showed markets pricing in a 70% chance of a Fed rate hike in October and a 95% chance of an increase in December. Peter Grant of Zaner Metals described the day’s rise as “just a correction from yesterday’s losses.”
Gold rebounded from an eight-week low on September 30 as traders parsed U.S. economic data for clues about Federal Reserve policy. Kitco reported that when August core PCE inflation came in cooler than expected at 0.2% monthly and second-quarter GDP was revised higher to 2.2%, gold prices rose to session highs. But the rally faced headwinds from a stronger dollar and soaring Treasury yields, which hit their highest levels since 2002.
Vietnamese gold prices spiked sharply on the same day. SJC gold bars reached 141.1–144.1 million VND per ounce, while SJC and PNJ gold rings traded near 138.5–141.5 million VND per ounce, Investing.com reported. Analysts warned that gold's broader technical picture remained weak, with prices still below key moving averages and support levels.
Inflation Data Triggers Rally From Multiweek Lows
Gold bounced sharply when fresh inflation data suggested the Fed might not need to tighten as aggressively as feared. Kitco reported that August headline PCE inflation rose just 0.3% month over month and 3.4% year over year — both below economist forecasts. Personal spending jumped 0.9%, exceeding the 0.8% projection, showing a resilient economy. This mix gave traders hope that inflation might be cooling.
Treasury Yields and Oil Push Against Gold's Upside
Even as gold rallied, strong headwinds kept gains limited. Yahoo Finance noted that high U.S. Treasury yields continued to weigh on the precious metal. The 30-year yield climbed above 5.61%, its highest level since 2002, according to VT Markets. Oil-driven inflation also bolstered expectations of tighter Fed policy, reinforcing the dollar's strength and keeping gold under pressure throughout the session.
Market Sees 70% Chance of Fed Hike in October
Traders remain anxious about the Fed's next moves despite the softer inflation print. Investing.com cited CME FedWatch data showing markets pricing in a 70% chance of a rate hike in October and a 95% chance of an increase in December. This elevated hike probability kept the dollar strong and Treasury yields elevated — both headwinds for gold, which yields no interest.
Technical Hurdles Limit Gold's Rebound Potential
Gold prices rebounded to around $4,180 from an eight-week low, but analysts warned the rally lacked conviction. VT Markets reported that immediate support sat near $4,165 while resistance hovered near the 100-day moving average at $4,295. Peter Grant of Zaner Metals described the day's rise as "just a correction from yesterday's losses," suggesting traders remained skeptical about a sustained recovery.
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