Knockout Stage Drama Unfolds
Argentina and Spain Confirm Top Group Spots as World Cup Knockout Stage Nears
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Key Points
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Cape Verde is described as the third smallest nation ever to play in a World Cup, with a population of roughly 500,000, and they reached the knockout stage by finishing second in Group H after three draws, including 0-0 with Spain and 2-2 with Uruguay, before facing defending champions Argentina.
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Opening odds for Argentina vs Cape Verde in the Round of 32 are the widest of the knockout stage so far: Argentina -700 to win in 90 minutes, Cape Verde +1400, with a draw at +700; Argentina to advance listed at -1600 and Cape Verde at +900.
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Argentina's World Cup title odds have shortened markedly during the tournament, moving from +967 at the outset to +675 after group-stage performance, placing them among the leading contenders (4th-best odds).
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The Uruguay vs Spain match analysis includes a dedicated Opta match centre with team and player stats, expected goals data, passing networks, and an Opta chalkboard, offering a deeper level of data-driven insight.
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Germany vs Paraguay is framed as a tactical battle, with Germany aiming to impose tempo and Paraguay seeking to frustrate and counter; the article notes that the referee for the match had not yet been announced at the time of writing.
Germany and Paraguay are set to clash at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough on June 29, 2026, in one of the most anticipated Round of 32 fixtures of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Julian Nagelsmann's attack-minded Germany side enters as favorites, but Paraguay's reputation for defensive resilience makes this a genuine "trap game" in the first-ever 48-team knockout bracket, according to FIFA Official Match Centre.
Elsewhere in the bracket, Cape Verde — a nation of just 500,000 people — faces defending champions Argentina after finishing second in Group H. Argentina's title odds have already shortened from +967 before the tournament to +675 now, placing them fourth among favorites, per Oddschecker.
Germany's Tempo vs. Paraguay's Defensive Wall
Germany head coach Julian Nagelsmann has made his approach clear. He wants his team to "impose their tempo from the first minute," according to the German Football Association. The goal is to prevent Paraguay from settling into the low defensive block — a 4-4-2 or 5-3-2 shape — that has historically frustrated European sides.
Paraguay's gameplan is the opposite: sit deep, absorb pressure, and hit on the counter. ESPN FC notes that this approach has made Paraguay a consistent "giant killer" in South American qualifiers. The referee for the Gillette Stadium clash had not yet been named as of June 27, a detail that concerns analysts given the physical nature of Paraguay's defending.
Cape Verde's Cinderella Run Sets Up Argentina Showdown
Cape Verde is the third smallest nation ever to play in a World Cup. They reached the Round of 32 without winning a single match — three draws in Group H, including a 0-0 shutout of Spain and a 2-2 tie with Uruguay. Opta Analyst calls their run a "statistical anomaly" and a historic first for the island nation.
Their reward is a date with Argentina. The defending champions are massive favorites: Argentina to win in 90 minutes is priced at -700, while Cape Verde sits at +1400, with a draw at +700. To advance overall, Argentina are listed at -1600 and Cape Verde at +900, per FanDuel.
Argentina's Odds Surge as Scaloni Downplays Favorites Tag
Argentina have been the story of the group stage. Their high-press style and clinical finishing drove their title odds from +967 before kick-off all the way to +675 now, according to Oddschecker. Only France, Brazil, and England carry shorter odds to lift the trophy.
Head coach Lionel Scaloni has tried to cool expectations. "At this stage, there are no easy matches," he told AFA Media. Still, the betting markets tell a different story. A Cape Verde win would rank as one of the biggest upsets in World Cup history — the draw odds alone sit at +700.
Spain Lead Group H but Uruguay Still Fight for Survival
Spain top Group H with four points after a narrow final group-stage win. Cape Verde's three draws — worth three points — secured second place. Uruguay sit behind them and need a win in their final match to keep knockout hopes alive, making the Spain–Uruguay fixture one of the most pivotal of the group stage's final round.
Opta Analyst broke down the Uruguay–Spain match using Expected Goals (xG) data and passing networks. Spain held 68% possession but Uruguay created higher-quality chances through direct, vertical play. That same defensive blueprint — a compact low block that limits space — is exactly what Paraguay plans to deploy against Germany on June 29.
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