Argentina's Historic Defense
Defending Champions Argentina Kick Off World Cup Knockout Stage Against Underdog Cape Verde
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Key Points
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Argentina’s title defense would be historic, as no team has successfully defended the FIFA World Cup since Brazil in 1962.
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Argentina arrive at the knockout stage on a nine-game World Cup winning streak on the world’s biggest stage.
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Cape Verde progressed as Group H runners-up by drawing all three group matches, finishing with a 2-2 goal tally (2 for, 2 against), including a goalless draw with Spain.
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Prediction markets show Argentina as the clear favorite with about 94% implied probability to win, while Cape Verde are pegged at roughly 7% to advance, and the game could go to extra time and penalties if tied after 90 minutes.
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For this Round of 32 match, Argentina are listed at -650 to win with a +700 draw, and Messi goal-scoring probabilities sit around -225, with other Argentina options priced accordingly in the betting markets.
Defending World Cup champions Argentina open their 2026 knockout campaign against Cape Verde in Miami on July 3, with prediction markets giving the Albiceleste a 94% chance to advance, according to Sporting News. The match is a classic David-versus-Goliath contest — Cape Verde drew all three group games to scrape through as runners-up, while Argentina swept Group J with a perfect record.
Lionel Messi sits joint-top of the Golden Boot standings with six goals, level with Kylian Mbappé. This could be his final World Cup — and Argentina are chasing history no team has managed since Brazil in 1962: a successful title defense.
Cape Verde Scraped Through on Three Draws
Cape Verde finished Group H as runners-up without winning a single match. They drew all three games, scoring two goals and conceding two. One of those draws came against Spain — a result that showed real defensive grit from the small island nation. They arrive in Miami as heavy underdogs but with a backline that has proven hard to break down.
Argentina, by contrast, dominated Group J from start to finish. They enter the Round of 32 on a nine-game World Cup winning streak. No team in the field carries more momentum heading into the knockout phase.
Betting Markets Make Argentina a Near-Certainty to Win
The numbers tell a lopsided story. Argentina are priced at -650 to win the match outright, while a draw sits at +700, according to Gambling911. Cape Verde are given roughly 7% implied probability to advance. If the score is level after 90 minutes, the match goes to extra time and then penalties.
Messi's goal props are priced at -225 to score at any point in the match, per Sporting News. Julian Álvarez, who plays for Atlético Madrid in La Liga, is priced at -120 to score anytime, making him another strong option in prop markets, according to Gambling911.
Messi and Mbappé Share the Golden Boot Lead
Messi and Mbappé are both on six goals heading into the Round of 32, according to Foot Africa. Harry Kane is also in the mix, with five or more goals in both the 2022 and 2026 tournaments. The Golden Boot race adds another layer of drama to every Messi appearance from here on.
For Messi, the stakes are deeply personal. This is widely expected to be his last World Cup. Argentina's title defense is already historic in its ambition. No team has lifted the trophy in back-to-back tournaments since Brazil did it 64 years ago.
Argentina's Potential Path to the Final
A win over Cape Verde would set up a Round of 16 clash with either Australia or Egypt, depending on bracket results, according to Yahoo Sports. Those are winnable games on paper. The real tests could come later — Switzerland or Colombia in the quarterfinals, and potentially England, Brazil, France, Spain, or Portugal in the semifinals.
Bettors are already looking ahead. Argentina over 2.5 goals is among the top Round of 16 picks in the market, per Head Topics. The knockout phase begins with three matches on July 3, 2026, with Argentina versus Cape Verde the headline fixture of the opening day.
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